Posted on 05/18/2005 10:39:07 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Suddenly U.S. focuses more on trade/currency issues with China than N. Korean nuclear issues.
Considering the resolution of the N. Korean problem is almost entirely up to China, this may be the logical path to explore. Economic pressure to China could solve more than trade/currency problems.
So our country's trade policy must be dictated by the response of other countries? Oh, and China's market can't be considered "open" and it is China who sells to us, not the other way around.
Ping!
How stupid is the Bush administration?
You mean, it won't work?
This isn't a pre-planned "good cop, bad cop" routine.
The Bush Administration has the job of actually making the hard decisions that will affect all of us. Responding to China's unfair trade practices has needed some study. I would say that the President has finally heard all of the advice he needs, and is ready to put his foot down.
Congress can make any demands it wants, but they know they're exonerated from being responsible for any decisions because this is an executive decision, not a Congressional one.
It is more like a classic Congressional tantrum, with the grownups in the White House being stuck making the hard decision.
In the end, Bush is going to put his foot down hard. It wouldn't surprise me if the foot and an aircraft carrier group visiting Taiwan arrive simultaneously.
China needs to know that we're serious about Free Trade, and what China is doing is not an example of Free Trade. It is cheating.
(China's economy can't handle a huge slow down in exports. I wonder if there's some special timing involved that we don't know about.)
The president has had numerous opportunities to act regarding China's unfair trade policies. Just as he has had numerous opportunities to do something about our borders. He a globalist. Period.
Taiwan isn't worth defending. If it were, we'd move our troops from South Korea there to ensure China got the message. Plus that would free our hand at retaliating should the DPRK do something stupid.
Regarding Asian politics, there isn't a day that goes by lately where I'm not thankful to the Japanese. I never thought that possible.
I hope your faith in this president is correct, and I'm wrong. I'm just using his own past performance to predict his future - and it doesn't bode well.
It is not pre-planned, I agree. However, the opportunity came his way. Actually, these problem have been around for a while. Now he decides to work on it.
Congress folks are not a group of sages, for sure. They do this to grab headlines and boost their rating. However, they could act as bad cops, which Bush can use to threaten China while keeping his smile.
Now this is the leverage Bush can use to settle more than one problem, including N. Korean nukes.
Spreading freedom and democracy are already one axis of Bush foreign policy. Now he can actively use trade issue as another axis. On both accounts, China is vulnerable.
" Now this is the leverage Bush can use to settle more than one problem, including N. Korean nukes."
This problem is going to be 'settled' by DPRK doing their nuclear test and declaring themselves a nuclear power (again), period, IMHO. They've got them (IMHO), the timing of a test is a political issue at this point.
I don't think it is so simple as china telling them to do anything, anymore than we could have stopped israel from going nuclear. (sensitive people note - i am not making any comparison between israel and dprk beyond the fact that their primary supportive great power cannot always get its way on issues of national security).
Not gonna happen.
I don't think N. Korea is taking orders from China. It is just that China refuse to cut N. Korea loose, because they still think that keeping Kim Jong-il even with the current baggage is better than the alternative. We just have to make it far worse than the alternative.
Once China turns against N. Korea, even with the nuclear test, the day of Kim Jong-il regime is basically over, and the alternative power center could emerge.
We will see.
What other countries become cheaper than china for US buyers if the yuan rises, say, 15%, and how much capacity do they have to actually take business FROM china?
I do not know the numbers on china's production, nor its nearest competitors in terms of cost of goods, but I cannot imagine any country having enough spare capacity to take much of china's business vs. its growth rate.
I do not know the exact figures either. However, I suspect that there are countries in S.E. Asia or S. Asia which can benefit from yuan's revaluation.
I suspect many of them could benefit, though I am not sure how much spare capacity they have as a whole with respect to how much business they could really take from china.
Its not up to China to cut N.Korea loose or not either. They alreay cut China loose long time ago and stopped treating China as one of her comrades. China has been continuously criticized as too capitalized and to them China is not a communist country anymore.
I don't think China likes N. Korea. That is not the point. The point is that China still provides oil and other materials to N. Korea, despite N. Korea's problems.
China can certainly reduce their aids to essential food stuffs, cutting everything else. Despite Kim Jong-il's antics, China apparently finds N. Korea useful. Despite China's capitalist ways, N. Korea still finds China essential for its survival. This situation has to change.
N.Korea is useful to China---in what way? Could u pls elaberate on that one?
Chinese regime regard it as a buffer against U.S. influence. As bad as N. Korea is, it is in Chinese sphere of influence now. If Kim Jong-il regime goes down, S. Korea or U.S. influence could grow in N. Korea. China does not like it.
What China is interested in is the chess game with U.S., not N. Korea's intrinsic value. Judging from China's behaviors so far, it is willing to put up with quite a lot to preserve status quo.
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