That assumes a cloture motion will be filed. Rule XXII is ONE way to end debate, but it is not the ONLY way to end debate.
We may see political pressure used to end debate, said political pressure being exerted without cloture.
Let me back up and clarify ... if Specter votes for Owen, more power to him, but it's more important to me to get his vote on cloture AND to support any ruling by Cheney that would invoke the nuclear option. I don't think his vote is needed on Owen; his vote is needed on the other two things.