'Green' revolution threatens Uzbekistan -- but what would it mean?

AFP ^ | Sat May 14, 8:57 PM ET

[jb6]

MOSCOW (AFP) - First there was a "rose" revolution, then an "orange" one, but while the "green" or Islamic revolt some see brewing in Uzbekistan may share a basic thirst for democracy, the outcome could be radically -- and tragically -- different, analysts said.

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The "people power" revolts in Georgia 18 months ago, then Ukraine last December caught the world's imagination.

In both cases, huge, peaceful crowds forced the resignation of corrupt, vote-rigging governments. In came new, younger, Westward-looking leaders who vowed to put their ex-Soviet republics in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Then in March, a revolt that was part-coup, part-uprising swept Uzbekistan's neighbour, Kyrgyzstan, underlining how vulnerable many of the ex-Soviet Union's current leaders are.

The people of Andijan, in eastern Uzbekistan's impoverished and crowded Ferghana Valley, also say they are fed up with President Islam Karimov's iron-fisted rule.

"Poverty, sham-democracy, corruption, Soviet leaders and authorities -- these are the basic characteristics of regimes threatened by 'coloured revolutions'," Russia's Gazeta newspaper wrote.

But unlike in the previous revolutions, the Uzbek protest -- sparked by anger at the trial of 23 men accused of belonging to an outlawed Islamic revolutionary group -- soon turned deadly with an armed raid on the local prison and public buildings.

In 2003, Georgia's leader Eduard Shevardnadze refused to order police to shoot at rose-waving crowds. In 2004, Ukraine's security forces melted away in the face of the orange-clad masses. But Karimov had no qualms about spilling blood.

In the swift and brutal counter-attack, his troops not only scattered the rebels, but shot down unarmed demonstrators. Witnesses spoke of hundreds killed. AFP correspondents saw around 50 dead bodies.

Karimov blamed Islamic extremists for the unrest -- men a far cry from the English-speaking pro-democracy leaders who took power in Georgia and Ukraine.

In a press conference Saturday, the Uzbek leader put his own spin on what all observers agree are differences between the revolt in his country and those in Georgia and Ukraine.

"To attempt to see this through the prism of the spread of democracy is far from the truth, to put it mildly... The mentality of our people is very different from (that) in Georgia," he said, evoking an element of "radical Islam" in Uzbekistan that does not figure in Georgia or Ukraine.

Analysts said Karimov may be partly right, but that he is himself responsible for driving legitimate protestors into the hands of Islamic radicals, the de facto opposition movement in Uzbekistan's political vacuum.

"Karimov's tough policies and constant pressure have provoked these people," Alexi Malashenko, at the Moscow Carnegie Center, said. "He arrested not only the Islamist leaders, but their wives. No one likes this."

"Green" revolution becomes attractive in such an environment, said Alexander Iskandarian, at the Caucasus Media Institute.

"The roots may be social, but in such countries the conflict takes on an Islamic tone," he said. "These young, poor people are rich pickings for Islam, which preaches equality, justice, purity and so on."

Another major difference between Uzbekistan's turmoil and the earlier upheavals is the attitude of the outside world.

The revolutionaries of Georgia and Ukraine had training and diplomatic support from Western NGOs and diplomats, but the international community looks on Uzbekistan more in alarm than hope.

The United States, seen by many as a catalyst in the earlier revolutions, also fears the spread of Islamic power. Despite his unsavoury reputation, Karimov is considered an ally of Washington thanks to having made available a major airbase for use against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

In his reaction to the bloodshed in Andijan, the US State Department spokesman balanced worries about human rights with concern over the activities of "members of a terrorist organisation" he said had escaped from the city's prison.

Although Karimov may have succeeded in putting down the Andijan revolt, analysts said they believed the crisis will rebound -- possibly spreading throughout Central Asia. A velvet, European-style outcome was unlikely, they said.

"Central Asia is once again becoming part of the East, as it was before being conquered by the Russians," Iskandarian said. "What is happening in Ferghana is closer to Afghanistan, Palestine and Yemen than Georgia."

[Righty_McRight]

Is this the going to be the new Taliban stronghold?