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I presume you mean polls of likely voters if there is an election. Looking at the numbers for likely MP votes next week, it appears that it is razor thin and that the "cancer defense" mounted by Martin may work. If two cancer stricken conservatives cannot attend and two liberals attend who missed the last confidence vote, the result would be 152 liberals and 151 for the Conservatives and the Bloc. Correct?

You are correct - IF - all Members are present.

However, here are the WILD CARDS:

1. The despicable, now independent, Carolyn Parrish - will definitely vote with the Liberals even though they rightly turfed her from their Caucus.
2. David Kilgour now independent - once a Mulroney-era Conservative who went Liberal in 1990 and who finally left that Party mostly over Adscam last month - could go either way but well knows that voting with Martin will effectively sign his already filled-out political suicide note with his Alberta constituents.
3. Chuck Cadman former CPC MP from BC , re-elected as an independent in 2004 after losing his CPC nomination race - a personally popular but highly flaky red-Tory, he's changed his position on bringing down Martin at least half a dozen times but, like Kilgour, recognizes the road to political suicide when he sees it and so I'm betting this idiot votes with the CPC.
4. Ed Broadbent somewhat respected former NDP Leader and not running for re-election as an MP - has publicly claimed that in the interests of fairness he will abstain from voting if CPC's Stinson can't vote because of his cancer surgery. (take one off Martin's total!)
5. Speaker of The House, a Liberal, will definitely vote with Martin in the event of a tie.

HIGHLY CAUTIOUS PREDICTION:
LIBERALS WILL GO DOWN TO DEFEAT BY 1 OR 2 VOTES !!!

There would be "paired" voting. Some members from the NDP or the government would not cast votes out of courtesy for Opposition MPs who can't be present to cast votes. The Opposition is expected to carry the motion, triggering a new election next month.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)