China Rules Out Using Sanctions on North Korea

BEIJING, May 10 - China on Tuesday ruled out applying economic or political sanctions to pressure North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program, appearing to undercut a crucial element of the Bush administration's evolving North Korea strategy. The announcement comes just as American intelligence agencies are trying to determine whether North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test.

Echoing President Bush's public comments, the Chinese said in a briefing on Tuesday that they still hoped that talks with North Korea would succeed in disarming the country, even though it has boycotted those talks for 11 months.

Liu Jianchao, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, said Tuesday that China rejected suggestions that it should reduce oil or food shipments to North Korea, calling them part of its normal trade with its neighbor that should be separate from the nuclear problem. "The normal trade flow should not be linked up with the nuclear issue," he said. "We oppose trying to address the problem through strong-arm tactics."

Beijing's apparent unwillingness to go along with Mr. Bush's backup plan to squeeze North Korea takes away the crucial pressure point that Mr. Bush's aides have been counting on. It also suggests that the strategy of threatening to go to the United Nations Security Council - which Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has begun to discuss - could fail.

China's statement came just days after officials said at least one American intelligence agency had picked up signs that North Korea might be preparing for its first test of a nuclear weapon at Kilju in the northeastern part of the country.

That evidence is ambiguous, and some in the intelligence agencies, including analysts at the State Department's bureau of intelligence and research, are debating whether the activity they are seeing in satellite images signals that a test is imminent. Even those who find the evidence particularly worrisome caution that the activity could be a ruse.

Earlier on Tuesday, North Korea's state-run media said the United States was "making a fuss" regarding whether North Korea might conduct a test. While it dismissed the reports as "U.S. strategic opinions," the Korean Central News Agency neither denied that that was the country's intent nor threatened - as North Korea has in past - to detonate a weapon to prove that it could.

President Bush called China's president, Hu Jintao, to discuss North Korea late last week, though the White House gave no details of the conversation. But several current and former American officials noted on Tuesday that the Chinese had consistently resisted pressure to crack down on trade with the North Koreans, and seemed to have made the stability of the North Korean government a top priority. Mr. Bush and his aides have said that disarmament is their top priority, and the president has made no secret of the fact that he detests the North Korea leader, Kim Jong Il, whom he recently called a "tyrant," accusing him of keeping political dissidents in "concentration camps."

"Our sense is there is a great debate going on in Beijing right now, which is intense and divisive," one senior administration official said on Tuesday. "Their game worked fine when the North Koreans were talking" with the other five nations - China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States. But now, the official noted, "North Korea is saying it is a nuclear weapons state, and they say they want to go into mutual arms reduction talks."

That is a position very different from the one North Korea was taking a year ago, when the discussion was about agreeing to a de-nuclearized Korean Peninsula. The Chinese, the administration official said, "know that just getting them back to the talks isn't good enough now."

Still, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's statements suggest that China's strategy for dealing with North Korea remains basically unchanged despite the concerns about a nuclear test, and despite repeated appeals of the Bush administration urging Beijing to take a tougher line.

While Mr. Liu called recent developments related to North Korea's weapons program "worrying," he said both the United States and North Korea had expressed a commitment to resume negotiations and that China had "not lost hope" in arranging a new round of talks.

Some experts with long experience dealing with China on the North Korea issue suggest that Beijing's public stance may be quite different from what it is saying to the North Koreans. "The Chinese may be feigning indifference," said Kurt Campbell, who held a senior defense position in the Clinton administration dealing with Asian issues. "I believe in private they are putting pressure on the North Koreans not to test because a test would be deeply antithetical to their interests in the region."

Inside the Bush administration, policy makers seem divided on the question of whether North Korea is really headed toward a test.

Among the questions are whether North Korea is bluffing, and whether its leaders have decided that demonstrating their nuclear capacities would serve their purposes better than continued ambiguity about them. These questions are complicated because there is no consensus among analysts about what the satellite imagery of the Kilju area shows.

One senior official involved in the debate over how to handle North Korea said Monday that a test "might convince the Chinese that they have to get tough." But just weeks ago, others in the administration were expressing concern that a test could be a political shock to the region and might set off an environmental disaster significant radiation leaked from an underground test site.

It is unclear whether the North Koreans could interpret China's public statements on Tuesday that it separated trade from nuclear issues as a signal that it would not suffer significant repercussions if it went ahead with a nuclear test.

Absent a test, however, it is unclear how the United States could increase pressure on North Korea without Chinese help. China could veto any United Nations resolution, and if it was unwilling to enforce sanctions along its border, any efforts to isolate North Korea would be likely to fail. The World Food Program, citing statistics from the Chinese government, said China's food aid to North Korea soared in the beginning of this year. By the organization's estimate, China sent 146,000 tons of food to North Korea in the first three months of this year, compared with 165,000 tons for all of 2004.

Since the United States accused North Korea of violating a pact to end its nuclear weapons program in 2002, China has resisted using trade or economic aid to its impoverished neighbor as leverage to force North Korea to discontinue the effort.

On a visit to China in late April, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill repeated American arguments that China should squeeze North Korea, cutting down on trade, especially fuel shipments, as a signal of displeasure with its refusal to return to the negotiating table. One senior official said the Chinese made it clear that they were concerned about prompting more instability in North Korea that could send millions of refugees over the Chinese border.

North Korea's economy depends heavily on Chinese trade and aid. The United States and its allies stopped providing oil to North Korea in 2002. But Chinese oil shipments have continued, and overall trade between China and North Korea increased 20 percent in the first quarter of 2005 compared with the same period a year ago.

Beijing has sent several diplomatic missions to North Korea to urge a return to nuclear talks. President Hu called the talks the "only correct path" for North Korea. North Korea has issued contradictory statements about its willingness to resume talks. It has said it will not do so unless the United States drops its "hostile policy," but it also reassured the Chinese that it is committed to continuing talks, officials have said.

China has also expressed concern about the possibility that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test, but has not specified whether a test would prompt it to impose penalties. "We object to any action that is contrary to the goal of the six-party talks," Mr. Liu said Tuesday. "A nuclearized Korean Peninsula is not beneficial to any nation."

Joseph Kahn reported from Beijing for this article, and David E. Sanger from Washington.

Probably plan to get a sweet trade deal if everyone except them stops trading with NK.

We just need to add China to the sanctions, since obviously it will be acting as a supplier.

Can't wait to here them cry about it.

Yep, there we have it. China doesn't give a damn about what NK does--it's all about whether the U.S. is a player in the region, and they're not about to let America intervene in their back yard, no way nohow.

F' `em. We might as well fight them now as later. We'da kicked Hitler's ass nine ways from Sunday in `31. By 2015 we're going to be in trouble trying to keep China from taking Australia, let alone Taiwan.

What would sanctions do, starve the people there even more? What it would do is create a mass exoudous to China from North Korea of starving people? Then what would China do?

I don't think China would ever see sanctions as a viable option.

Remember how the chicom symps here were telling us not to worry and that China would take care of North Korea for us?

What would result from sanctions on North Korea? Literally. Think it through. What would be the result?

Re #6

"The Chinese may be feigning indifference," said Kurt Campbell, who held a senior defense position in the Clinton administration dealing with Asian issues. "I believe in private they are putting pressure on the North Koreans not to test because a test would be deeply antithetical to their interests in the region."

Even though this came out of Clintonoid's mouth, I actually believe this. They would never publicly repudiate their previous position however wrong they were. However, their action could change. They tend to play this duplicitous game, which I am sure Kim Jong-il is well aware of.

Having said that, we also have to seriously step up more pressure on China. Keep reminding them that, if they do not cut lifeline to N. Korea, they will be face with barrage of punitive trade actions as well as S. Korea, Taiwan, and Japan going nuclear, just to keep China focused. U.S. needs to remind China that U.S. is prepared to go the entire length.

China and even S. Korea are not interested in sanctioning N. Korea..
S. Korea is especially afraid of having to rebuild a N. Korean economy if military action occurs..
S. Korea is afraid that they will suffer a fate similar to that of Germany's economic hardships following re-unification..

S. Korea has had a fairly short period of prosperity..
I doubt they are confident that their recent success will continue, and an economic hardship like re-unification could plunge them into severe economic depression..

China of course, is also concerned about it's recently booming economy..
But China has other concerns as well, such as it's military power in the asian theatre, as well as it's International Political position..
Any successful strategy bringing about N. Korea's collapse or Governmental Restructuring will, in China's mind, require the prominent placement of China in it's implementation.

Any change in N. Korea will be done with China's benefit in mind.

Re #11

The Chinese reactions to N. Korean crisis in recent years also make me put more stock on the argument that top Chinese leadership is plagued with stalemates among factions, hampering effective decision making. That is, most of the time, nothing is done without unanimous agreement, which would end up heavily favoring the maintenance of the status quo.

....top Chinese leadership is plagued with stalemates among factions, hampering effective decision making. That is, most of the time, nothing is done without unanimous agreement,...

Yes, agreed..
Unanimous agreement is required, and no one is likely to express a minority opinion..
Until party heads have ventured an opinion on any subject, the safest opinion is the party line..

I would guess chinese internal politics is something akin to looking for safe crossing in a piranha infested river..

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