[ZeitgeistSurfer]

We have underestimated the Chinese for quite a while. They will not risk all out war with the US because it gains them nothing. They will use many time-tested Chinese stratagems to win the global geopolitical/economic struggle including: (1) "surround and deny" to choke off (or make prohibitively expense) resources we need for our economy, (2) carrot-and-stick diplomacy with Africa, Europe and the Middle East, (3) increasing the already significant economic dependency of this country on China and Chinese allies, (4) subtly and slowly build on their international relationships to isolate the United States. Within ten years the Taiwan will welcome in the Chinese with flags and parades to our amazement simply by using rewards and threats to wear them down. In other words we don't seem to have the capacity to wage a vast global game of "Go" where stone-by-stone they are surrounding us.

[Brilliant]

That might seem logical, but downing a US spy plane over international waters was a pretty risky thing to do, and the military buildup near Taiwan seems counterproductive to a peace strategy, as does the North Korea standoff and the anti-Japan demonstrations. You'd think that if they were rational, they'd curb a lot of that stuff.