[Gumlegs]

The sheer improbability of it suggests divine intervention. For 2-3 billion years of random molecule interaction to firmly arrive at humanity is a statistic impossibility. If a divine plan isn't being followed there, then that was a really foolish gamble on God's part. There is more than enough ample room for God and evolution to co-exist.

This is an unconvincing argument. Suppose someone with really, really superhuman bladder control and no need to sleep or eat sits at a continuously operating roulette table for for a full week and writes down each number as it comes up. (No betting involved). This amazing person then calculates the odds of getting that exact result. If the wheel has the usual "0" and "00" slots, I think the odds work out as 1 in 38ⁿ, with n being the number spins -- you math mavens may pitch in here, please. But it doesn't matter, because the event had, in fact, happened.

This is not an argument against God. It's an argument about silly applications of mathematics.

[VadeRetro]

Patrick or somebody decided upon calling this the "fallacy of retrospective astonishment." I like it.

[js1138]

This is not an argument against God. It's an argument about silly applications of mathematics.

Anything can be proven to be impossibly improbable. It takes a bit of psychosis to try this on something that has already happened.

[dread78645]

I think the odds work out as 1 in 38n, with n being the number spins -- you math mavens may pitch in here, please.

Correct. In formal notation:

C(q,k)ⁿ = (q!/(q-k)!)ⁿ = (38!/37!)ⁿ = 38ⁿ

This is not an argument against God. It's an argument about silly applications of mathematics.

It's pointless to calculate probabilities if there isn't a favored outcome (ex. roulette table -- no bets).