Death's Wages: UNPD Population Projections Continue to Drop

PRI Weekly Briefing ^ | 9 May 2005 | Joseph A. D'Agostino

[St. Johann Tetzel]

Death's Wages: UNPD Population Projections Continue to Drop

By Joseph A. D'Agostino

At his press conference April 28, President Bush used some statistics to demonstrate the need for his Social Security reform plan. "There's a lot of us getting ready to retire who will be living longer and receiving greater benefits than the previous generation," he said. "And to compound the problem, there are fewer people paying into the system. In 1950, there were 16 workers for every beneficiary; today there are 3.3 workers for every beneficiary; soon there will be two workers for every beneficiary. These changes have put Social Security on the path to bankruptcy."

Forty years of contraception, abortion, feminism, and two-income or one-parent families have taken their toll. The 105-page Highlights of the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision outline the demographic crisis overtaking the world, not just the United States and her collapsing Social Security system.

It's very simple to state: People aren't having enough children to sustain the long-term economic prosperity of the world or most of its individual countries. In many cases, particularly in Western Europe and Japan, they aren't having enough children to ensure the survival of their national cultures-perhaps not even their nations-into the next century. Pension and health care systems will just be the first things to break down.

Experts have been predicting dire consequences of world "overpopulation" for two centuries now, and they have never come true. Now, after decades of population control, family planning, feminism, and anti-family economic realignment, rapidly declining fertility levels will inevitably produce demographic disaster due to the opposite problem.

UNPD has revised its prediction for the world's population in 2050 down to 9.1 billion from the 9.3 billion by 2050 it predicted in its 2000 revision. The world will hit 6.5 billion sometime in July of this year. UNPD has tended to be candid about the world's coming underpopulation and aging crises in recent years, and indications are that new UNPD Director Hania Zlotnik will continue this high-quality devotion to science. But UNPD does continue to cling to at least one unrealistic assumption. The new medium variant projection counts on fertility rates rising in developed countries even though there is no reason to think that they will. Says the report:

"In developed countries as a whole, fertility is currently 1.56 children per woman and is projected to increase slowly to 1.84 children per woman in 2045-2050. In the least developed countries, fertility is 5 children per woman and is expected to drop by about half, to 2.57 children per woman by 2045-2050. In the rest of the developing world, fertility is already moderately low at 2.58 children per woman and is expected to decline further to 1.92 children per woman by mid-century, thus nearly converging to the fertility levels by then typical of the developed world." Replacement rate fertility is 2.1 children per woman in the absence of major wars, famine, and epidemic.

What justification does UNPD have in saying that fertility levels will rise in developed countries? Perhaps the agency believes that large-scale immigration into Western Europe will continue, and that these immigrants will have so many children that they will raise greatly the total fertility rate of the entire developed world. UNPD projects a net migration of about 73 million people into wealthier countries: "Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005-2050, population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration." The immigration projections may be less than some might expect, but remember that fertility rates are dropping fast in the developing world, too-and the backlash against large-scale immigration is growing in Western Europe and the United States.

In any case, UNPD doesn't say. It says it just assumes that fertility rates everywhere will converge on the number 1.85: "Total fertility in all countries is assumed to converge eventually toward a level of 1.85 children per woman. However, not all countries reach this level during the projection period, that is, by 2050." It's hard to foresee social changes in developed countries that will lead to such a dramatic turnaround in fertility by 2050.

UNPD predicts that population growth in the developed world has come almost completely to a standstill: "Almost all growth will take place in the less developed regions, where today's 5.3 billion population is expected to swell to 7.8 billion in 2050. By contrast, the population of the more developed regions will remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion."

Developed countries' combined population will remain stable as immigrants flood in to replace the native populations that are dying off. And dying off they are: "Fertility levels in the 44 developed countries, which account for 19% of the world population, are currently very low. All except Albania have fertility below-replacement level and 15, mostly located in Southern and Eastern Europe, have reached levels of fertility unprecedented in human history (below 1.3 children per woman)." Majority Muslim Albania is the only developed country whose people care enough about their future to procreate their descendents.

A few developed countries have seen some fertility rate increases over the past 10-15 years, but not enough to raise them above replacement level. "Since 1990-1995, fertility decline has been the rule among most developed countries," says UNPD. "The few increases recorded, such as those in Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands and the United States, have been small."

UNPD's low variant projection, which historically is more accurate than the medium variant projection that it holds out as most likely to be right, estimates a world population of only 7.7 billion by 2050, due to an estimated total fertility rate 0.5 child less than the projection used in the medium variant. The developed world will drop to less than 1.1 billion people in that time.

Regardless of what happens in total numbers, dramatic aging of the world's population, particularly in the developed world, will certainly occur. Even taking UNPD's higher medium variant numbers, "The primary consequence of fertility decline, especially if combined with increases in life expectancy, is population aging, whereby the share of older persons in a population increases relative to that of younger persons," reports UNPD. "Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is expected almost to triple, increasing from 672 million in 2005 to nearly 1.9 billion by 2050. Whereas 6 out of every 10 of those older persons live today in developing countries, by 2050, 8 out of every 10 will do so. An even more marked increase is expected in the number of the oldest-old (persons aged 80 years or over): from 86 million in 2005 to 394 million in 2050. In developing countries, the rise will be from 42 million to 278 million, indicating that by 2050 most oldest-old will live in the developing world."

The percentages don't look good, either. "In developed countries, 20% of today's population is aged 60 years or over, and by 2050 that proportion is projected to be 32%," says UNPD. "The elderly population in developed countries has already surpassed the number of children (persons aged 0-14), and by 2050 there will be two elderly persons for every child. In the developing world, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over is expected to rise from 8% in 2005 to close to 20% by 2050."

Where will the money to support all these elderly people come from? Who will pay the rapidly rising health care costs, for example? The problem in the United States, which is much better off fiscally than almost any other nation due to its relatively high fertility rate and excellent economy, is only a fraction of that faced by other nations. Mass euthanasia of the old and all those unable to work-"useless eaters," in the Nazis' phrase-could become the world norm.

The wages of birth control, abortion, and feminism is death.

Joseph A. D'Agostino is Vice President for Communications at PRI. _________ PRI P.O. Box 1559 Front Royal, VA 22630 USA

Phone: (540) 622-5240 Fax: (540) 622-2728 Email: jad@pop.org Media Contact: Joseph A. D'Agostino (540) 622-5240, ext. 204 _________ (c) 2005 Population Research Institute. Permission to reprint granted. Redistribute widely. Credit required.

[St. Johann Tetzel]

The United Nations Population Division's population projections continue
to be revised downward as demographic disaster approaches. The
international agency's laudable devotion to honesty is marred by its
unsupported belief that fertility levels will rise in developed countries.

Steven W. Mosher
President

PRI Weekly Briefing
9 May 2005
Vol. 7 / No. 17

[St. Johann Tetzel]

People aren't having enough children to sustain the long-term economic prosperity of the world or most of its individual countries. In many cases, particularly in Western Europe and Japan, they aren't having enough children to ensure the survival of their national cultures-perhaps not even their nations-into the next century. Pension and health care systems will just be the first things to break down.

Experts have been predicting dire consequences of world "overpopulation" for two centuries now, and they have never come true. Now, after decades of population control, family planning, feminism, and anti-family economic realignment, rapidly declining fertility levels will inevitably produce demographic disaster due to the opposite problem.

The Church is ALWAYS right on these matters. Here's just more proof.

Now where are all those FR chicken little "Overpopulation! We're DOOMED!" nuts?

[wideawake]

The few increases recorded, such as those in Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands and the United States, have been small

All countries with high rates of Third World immigration.

This is not organic growth - it's imported growth.

[TimeLord]

These facts completely blow away 1 of the central pillars of the pro-abortion scum: we must butcher tens of millions of unborn children to prevent overpopulation. I hear this argument all the time (by the way, I only hear it from people who've already made it safely thru the birth canal).

[American Quilter]

Am I being too dramatic when I say we may see the end of Western Europe's people and culture within 100 years? Between an inadequate birth rate, the embrace of secularism, and the steady increase of anti-western immigrants, I don't see how they can save themselves.

[Rytwyng]

"Willful sterility is, from the standpoint of the nation, from the standpoint of the human race, the one sin for which the penalty is national death, race death; a sin for which there is no atonement." – Theodore Roosevelt, Sixth Annual Message to Congress (December 3, 1906)

[wideawake]

Yup. And their argument is, implicitly of course, that abortion is needed to keep down the proliferation of swarthy people.

The article makes a more realistic prediction - the lust for abortion may begin to wane while the desire to murder the elderly will increase.

[NYer]

The once Catholic countries of Italy and Spain are particularly badly off, but all nations of Western Europe face extinction, as do Canada and Japan. Many other countries, such as the United States, may be only two decades behind. For example, the fertility rates of Italy and Spain hover slightly above 1 child per woman. The simple fact is, the Western world's countries are committing national suicide. Many of these nations are importing large numbers of immigrants in order to supply labor to their economies. These immigrants, particularly Muslim ones in Europe, are too many and too culturally different from their new countries' populations to assimilate quickly, and they are contributing to the cultural suicide of these nations as they commit demographic suicide.

As a consequence of the lack of children, a dramatic increase in the number of the aged will occur. "In developed countries, 20 per cent of today's population is aged 60 years or over and by 2050 that proportion is projected to be 32 per cent. The elderly population in developed countries has already surpassed the number of children (persons aged 0-14) and by 2050 there will be 2 elderly persons for every child," the UNPD reports. "In the developing world, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over is expected to rise from 8 per cent in 2005 to close to 20 per cent by 2050." Who is going to take care of all these old people? Who will pay their medical bills? Given the advance of the culture of death, mass euthanasia could be the solution.

Catholic Ping - Please freepmail me if you want on/off this list

[wideawake]

Am I being too dramatic when I say we may see the end of Western Europe's people and culture within 100 years?

Not really.

St. Paul wasn't kidding when he said what would happen to people who exchanged the truth of God for a lie.

Christian faith is what made the West great and lack of it is what will kill the West.

[St. Johann Tetzel]

Wow, thanks, great quote! I don't think I've seen that one.

[GipperGal]

the lust for abortion may begin to wane while the desire to murder the elderly will increase.

Back in 2003, I think we got a preview of this "get rid of the elderly" mentality when the French vacationed on the coast while they left their elderly parents and grandparents in the cities to die from the heat wave. Even after they were informed of the deaths, most of them didn't even bother to cut their vacations short to return to bury their elderly family members. You think these people are going to give a rat's patootie about the sanctity of life once they perceive the elderly as being a drag on their lifestyles of leisure? You think they're going to give up their month long vacations to pay for grandma's health care?

[ninenot]

The only really good argument GWB has for "legitimizing" a few million illegal aliens is that we will desperately need the SS revenues over the next 50 years.

Oddly, he doesn't use it. Perhaps that's because he would be indicting damn near all the baby-boomers for their hedonism and selfishness--at the very least.

[SaltyJoe]

This could be how the enemies of Christ undo mankind's efforts of using Reason to fight evil. Moral bankruptcy will result in financial bankruptcy.

[Aquinasfan]

The simple fact is, the Western world's countries are committing national suicide.

Could it be that Paul VI was right about the effects of contraception? Nah.

Consequences of Artificial Methods

17. Responsible men can become more deeply convinced of the truth of the doctrine laid down by the Church on this issue if they reflect on the consequences of methods and plans for artificial birth control. Let them first consider how easily this course of action could open wide the way for marital infidelity and a general lowering of moral standards. Not much experience is needed to be fully aware of human weakness and to understand that human beings—and especially the young, who are so exposed to temptation—need incentives to keep the moral law, and it is an evil thing to make it easy for them to break that law. Another effect that gives cause for alarm is that a man who grows accustomed to the use of contraceptive methods may forget the reverence due to a woman, and, disregarding her physical and emotional equilibrium, reduce her to being a mere instrument for the satisfaction of his own desires, no longer considering her as his partner whom he should surround with care and affection.

Finally, careful consideration should be given to the danger of this power passing into the hands of those public authorities who care little for the precepts of the moral law. Who will blame a government which in its attempt to resolve the problems affecting an entire country resorts to the same measures as are regarded as lawful by married people in the solution of a particular family difficulty? Who will prevent public authorities from favoring those contraceptive methods which they consider more effective? Should they regard this as necessary, they may even impose their use on everyone. It could well happen, therefore, that when people, either individually or in family or social life, experience the inherent difficulties of the divine law and are determined to avoid them, they may give into the hands of public authorities the power to intervene in the most personal and intimate responsibility of husband and wife.

Limits to Man's Power

Consequently, unless we are willing that the responsibility of procreating life should be left to the arbitrary decision of men, we must accept that there are certain limits, beyond which it is wrong to go, to the power of man over his own body and its natural functions—limits, let it be said, which no one, whether as a private individual or as a public authority, can lawfully exceed. These limits are expressly imposed because of the reverence due to the whole human organism and its natural functions, in the light of the principles We stated earlier, and in accordance with a correct understanding of the "principle of totality" enunciated by Our predecessor Pope Pius XII.

But what is sadly ironic is that Catholic countries like Italy and Spain are dying at the fastest rate. It's time for Catholics to start listening to holy mother Church rather than the world.

[Aquinasfan]

I don't see how they can save themselves.

Me either. But I said the same thing about the Berlin Wall coming down in my lifetime. We can't give up hope.

[St. Johann Tetzel]

Perhaps that's because he would be indicting damn near all the baby-boomers for their hedonism and selfishness--at the very least.

The GOP will pay lip service to the pro-life establishment out of one side of their mouth, while pushing population control and the contraceptive mentality out the other. They know they cannot touch this "third rail" of basic Christian morality, because they would lose so many of their core "values voters." Most evangelicals and moderate Catholics, even those who are self-professed pro-lifers, don't accept or refuse to comprehend the irrefutable link between the contraceptive mentality and legalized abortion.

Social Security is failing because the Baby Boomers bought the culture of death mentality and had "things and careers" instead of big families.

Those "things and careers" won't save them from the oncoming euthanasia juggernaut.