http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1504369/posts
As Alarm Over Flu Grows, Agency Tries to Quiet Fears
nytimes ^ | 10/18/05 | LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN
Posted on 10/18/2005 1:01:51 AM EDT by bitt
Trying to calm worldwide alarm about the spread of an avian influenza virus to Europe from Asia, an official of the World Health Organization cautioned yesterday that there were still no signs of an influenza pandemic in humans.
But the A(H5N1) avian strain is expected to spread to additional countries, and the agency remains concerned about the longer-term potential for the virus to mutate or combine with a human influenza virus to create a new one that could cause a human pandemic, the official, Dr. Mike Ryan, said. A pandemic is an epidemic that is prevalent across a wide area.
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1503902/posts
Litigation, regulation, price controls, and the avian flu. [This reminds me of Atlas Shrugged]
National Review ^ | October 17, 2005 | Sally Pipes
Posted on 10/17/2005 10:23:08 AM EDT by grundle
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/pipes200510170828.asp
October 17, 2005, 8:28 a.m.
Red Tape Choking Us
Litigation, regulation, price controls, and the avian flu.
By Sally Pipes
"We are not prepared for a pandemic,” Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said earlier this month. We do, however, face a significant risk of being hit by one. A new strain of the avian flu, known as H5N1, has killed at least 60 people in Asia since 2003. So far, humans cannot pass it to one another — virtually everyone infected caught the virus from a diseased bird.
The risk to people is nevertheless grave. The 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, blamed for 50 million deaths, also started among birds, but it mutated and spread to humans. Scientists fear the same thing could happen now. As an expert epidemiologist recently told the Wall Street Journal, “It’s not a question of if, but when.” The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that an avian-flu pandemic could kill between 89,000 and 207,000 Americans. There is no publicly available vaccine for the new strain.
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http://theedge.bostonherald.com/healthNews/view.bg?articleid=107564
Flu shots no help against avian strain
By Jessica Heslam
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
As avian flu fears continue to heighten, some confused Bay Staters have been asking their doctors whether this season's flu shot would protect them against the deadly bird flu.
It won't.
``This flu shot will not protect against avian flu. There's no vaccine available to protect people against avian flu,'' said Dr. Alfred DeMaria of the state Department of Public Health. ``People are confused about a pandemic flu, avian flu and ordinary flu.''
Nearly 430,000 doses of flu vaccine were delivered to state health officials Friday, part of the 728,000 that are expected.
People who are most vulnerable, such as those older than 65 or who have chronic health conditions, are being urged to get a flu shot. After Oct. 24, anyone can get a flu shot, officials said.
Last year at this time, the Bay State had a shortage of flu vaccine after a supplier was shut down because of contamination concerns. Half the U.S. supply was lost.
``We were very uncertain at this time last year,'' DeMaria said. ``Things look pretty good now.''
So far, 117 people in Asia – mostly poultry farmers – have caught the H5N1 strain, also known as avian flu. Nearly all infections have been traced to direct contact with infected birds.
Officials fear avian flu will eventually spread from human to human. A worldwide flu outbreak occurs every 20 to 50 years, experts say, and the last one occurred in 1968.
The World Health Organization said yesterday that avian flu can be expected to spread to other countries, but the biggest threat of it mutating into a human virus remains in Asia. The disease was recently found in Romania and Turkey. No cases have been reported in the United States.
Study shows 15 clusters of avian flu cases; some likely human-to-human spread
10-18-05 | Helen Branswell
Posted on 10/18/2005 8:04:21 AM EDT by Mother Abigail
Study shows 15 clusters of avian flu cases; some likely human-to-human spread
Helen BranswellCanadian Press
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
Clustering of human cases of H5N1 avian flu infections has occurred on at least 15 occasions since late 2003 and limited human-to-human transmission of the virus may have occurred in several of these groupings, researchers will report in an upcoming issue of the scientific journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
But key information on several of the clusters - the most recent documented in the paper occurred in early July - is still outstanding, illustrating some of the problems international health authorities will likely face if they try to put into action a plan to extinguish an emerging pandemic at source.
The lead author admitted that the rate at which information about human cases has emerged from affected countries raises worries about how clear a picture international authorities have when such events occur.
"Part of the reason to highlight this is to suggest any cluster should be viewed as a worrisome event and should be thoroughly worked up so that we can ascertain if it's person-to-person (spread) or rule it out," said Sonja Olsen, acting director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's International Emerging Infections Program, which is based in Bangkok.
"I'm sure some of these are just clear that there was no person to person and some to me seem less clear from the data that we have. But I think it raises the issue of: Do we have enough data on each of these?" Mathematical modelling work published in August suggests an emerging pandemic strain could be snuffed out at source.
But success was predicated on rapid identification of clustering of cases and likely human-to-human spread so that contacts of infected people could be quickly placed on antiviral drugs. Measures would also have to be taken to cordon off an affected area to ensure infected people didn't flee and spread the disease.
The authors combed published reports and consulted regional contacts looking for clusters of cases within families that occurred from January 2004 to July 2005. Since their report was submitted another family cluster occurred in Indonesia involving a woman and her young nephew, both of whom tested positive for H5N1 virus.
Their report will appear in the November issue of the journal, which is published by the CDC.
A cluster was considered two or more cases, where at least one member tested positive for the virus and other members of the cluster experienced severe pneumonia or death from respiratory disease.
Olsen said where human-to-human transmission may have taken place, the dates of onset of illness suggest transmission stopping after one generation. In other words, if a person passed the disease on to someone else, the newly infected individual did not appear to have spread it further.
"It's not to say there weren't tertiary cases, but we're not clearly seeing that in these data," she said from Bangkok.