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APZ,

We have a difference in opinion. We each see the same facts and have come to different conclusions. You are convicnced that the H5n1 virus will not cause mass deaths and panic in the streets. I see the same evidence and come to the conclusion that it will.

I am more of a student of history and the human reaction to the history and thus come from this in that way more then anything else.

As of now there is no cure, no vaccine and the virus is becoming resistent. There is no vaccine because the strain does not exist yet. Are there ways to make a vaccine when the strain emerges sure. But for the majority of the world it will not matter. Thus my statement is true.

The virus is able to jump from bird to human and from bird to pig each jump bringing the virus closer to picking up the required gene. Thus that statement is also scientifically true.

Human to human transmission is occurring the WHO even admits to this now but they say it is rare. Family clusters with different onset dates point to the infection from the sick person to the care giver. There have been reports of nurses getting the Flu from sick patients also. This shows that the virus can spread from H2H and if given the right mutation can spread fast. Again the statement is true.

The 1918 Flu caused upwards of 50 million deaths 500,000 at least in the USA. It created great economic hardships since the flu usually took aim at the family providers (men age 20-40) most. It also caused massive social change from canceling of public meetings, closing of schools, implementing massive changes in our health system etc, etc.. Again a 100% true statement

The governments are not gathering information and in most cases are actively covering up the information for pure economic reasons China leads this list. Another 100% true statement

The fatility rate of 1918 flu is not 100% know but the 3% figure appears to be the general scientific consensus. My point for this statement was two fold one to show how little of a fatality rate is needed to cause massive death and social unrest and to point out that H5n1 in its present form meets and exceeds this required thesehold. Thus IMO I see a gathering storm on the horizon. Now you can look at the same clouds and say IYO that the storm will pass us by. I hope your right. But I also know those people that think it will pass by and do not prepare would be the first people calling for help when/if the storm does hit because they failed to prepare. Katerina is the most recent example. A recent poll of N.O residents who stayed said this: 33% did not believe the storm would hit, 33% stayed to protect thier property or stayed due to pets, or did not have the money to flee and 33% stayed because they DID NOT KNOW a storm was coming. Which brings me to the statement to prepare for the worse. As a former boy scout I learned at an early age to take responsibility for my actions and to always be prepared. Whether it be a flash light and candles in the house for a power failure, canned goods and bottled water in the cabinets for a possible hurricane, or a spare tire in the truck or any number of things.

I have said in previous posts that we should not panic but be we should be worried and prepare. Yes there are a lot of worries in the world and yes you should prepare for as many as humanly possible. A savings account in case you lose your job, a full tank in case a hurricane hits the Gulf and wipes out the pipelines or you get stuck in traffic or a snow storm comes etc, a will in case you die, a plan of action for a pandemic or ANY societal breakdown, a gun and ammunition to protect your family and property. These small common sense approaches would avoid a lot of human hardships if everyone took the effort to prepare. The ones that don't end up cursing the God/government/neighbors for their personal failures and shortsightedness.

I just want to reiterate that the recent PBS documentary shown in September and filmed as late as August (dates were given in the film) did clearly show human-to-human transmission.

Among other things, the film followed one family who had eaten a chicken that had died of illness. I believe this was in Viet Nam. The 22-year-old son was devastatingly ill. His little 10(?) year old sister fell ill also, but seemed to do better and recover quite well. The young man was near death for some time, and when he recovered he looked like a skeleton. They said he could have permanent weakened lungs. They tested the whole family for the virus, and the 80-year-old grandfather also tested positive but was completely symptom-free.

Next they showed a man who had been the constant nurse in the hospital for the young man above. He fell very ill with the virus, but he too recovered. They interviewed him, and he said that he lives in the city, not near any poultry, and never eats poultry or birds. But he cared for the sick man for weeks. That has to be human-to-human.

Near the end of the film, they showed a silhouette of a sick man lying in a private room and said that it was a physician who had been caring for patients with bird flu.

This virus is obviously transmittable human to human.