Avian Flu Surveillance Project

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174 Sichuan Cases with 34 Deaths and Case Fatality Rate 74%

Recombinomics Commentary
July 30, 2005

Up to July 30 12 o'clock, the Sichuan accumulation speaker infects the pig chain coccus sickness case of illness 174 examples, laboratory diagnoses 19 examples, clinical diagnosis 104 examples, 疑似 51 examples. In these case of illness, cures leaves the hospital 12 examples, the critically ill 28 examples, died 34 examples. Case of illness distributes in 9 cities 26 counties (city, area), 96 villages and towns (street), 164 villages (residents' committee).

(Abundant news reporter: Hu armed force) (abundant news boxun.com)

The above report describes as steady increase and spread of the mystery illness. The number of cases has grown to 174. Of the first 46 outcomes, 34 have died, producing a case fatality arte of 72%. These numbers discount the likelihood that the streptococcus suis is the primary infection. Such infections should respond to antibiotics. A boxun interview indicated a recombinant Ebola strain was isolated from a patient. Plague bacteria was also found, as was another "dangerous" virus The viral components would help explain the poor response to antibiotic treatment as well as the rapid spread.

Link

Thanks, Gritty, for posting that here.

It's outside my thinking, that China could actually bioengineer a deadly pathogen, then try it out on their own people...I'm not a pollyanna, nor am I ignoring a threat; but I want more evidence before concluding that there is a biothreat from China toward the entire western world.

It's NOT outside my thinking that these pathogens could arise naturally. Nature does some very strange things. At this point, I'm thinking chance did this in nature.

That China might try to harness or exploit this would not surprise me, though...

Avian flu strain that can infect humans found in Russia: ministry

Canadian Press

July 30, 2005

MOSCOW (AP) - Investigators have determined that a strain of avian flu virus infecting fowl in Russia is the type that can infect humans, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday.

The virus caused the deaths of hundreds of birds in a section of Siberia this month, but no human infections have been reported.

In a brief statement, the ministry identified the virus as avian flu type A H5N1.

"That raises the need for undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope," the statement said. Ministry officials could not immediately be reached for elaboration.

Strains of bird flu have been hitting flocks throughout Asia and some human cases have been reported there. Since 2003, avian flu has killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, which reported its first three human deaths this month.

The outbreak in Russia's Novosibirsk region apparently started about two weeks ago when large numbers of chicken, geese, ducks and turkeys began dying. Officials say all dead or infected birds were incinerated. But it is unclear whether that would effectively stop the virus from spreading.

Earlier this week, Russia's chief government epidemiologist, Gennady Onishchenko, said the appearance of the virus in Russia could be due to migrating birds that rest on the Siberian region's lakes.

A recent report released by the journal Science said the finding of the H5N1 infection in migrant birds at Qinghai Lake in western China "indicates that this virus has the potential to be a global threat."

The reports echo concerns voiced by the World Health Organization, which urged China to step up its testing of wild geese and gulls. A WHO official estimated that the flu had killed more than 5,000 wild birds in western China.

The outbreak was first detected about two months ago in bar-headed geese at China's remote saltwater lake, which is a key breeding location for migratory birds that overwinter in southeast Asia, Tibet and India. The virus has hit that species the hardest, but also affects brown-headed gulls and great black-headed gulls.
© The Canadian Press 2005
http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=3e110cc9-b448-4484-a658-d58e35123442

I'm not buying the "China is behind every new pathogen" mantra, either. The Chinese aren't stupid.

May I be added to this ping list please?

Thanks

China starts producing pig-borne disease vaccine
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2005-07-28 21:03
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-07/28/content_464318.htm

People in southwest China that affected by a pig-borne disease are expected to receive vaccines soon.

According to experts with the team sent by the Ministry of Agriculture to the area of the outbreak, the vaccines for streptococcus swine type II, a bacteria carried by pigs, will soon be batch-produced in south China's Guangdong Province and are expected to reach Sichuan Province in about one week after being inspected by the Ministry of Agriculture.

Yongshun biomedical company in Guangdong will be the first to mass-produce the vaccines. It has already produced a small number of vaccines after receiving emergency training from the expert team.

Ning yubao, a member of the expert team and researcher with the China veterinarian medicine monitoring institute, said the vaccine should help control the outbreak.

The Ministry of Health announced 152 confirmed or suspected infections by noon on Thursday, killing 31 people. All those infected are reported to have handled sick pigs.

It's outside my thinking, that China could actually bioengineer a deadly pathogen, then try it out on their own people...

I don't doubt the Chinese could, and might, bioengineer such an agent. But I think it highly unlikely they would release it on their own population except by accident. Who knows if that has happened?

It seems some of the worst diseases originate in China naturally and for a number of reasons - not the least of which is China has always been a fetid soup these sorts of things can thrive within because of their densely packed animal, fowl and human populations as well as their poor sanitation practices.

Then there is the problem of their ever present paranoid secrecy which seems to permeate their government systems. Rumors and false information can then abound. The Chinese are not helping themselves by letting the rest of the world participate freely except on a seemingly very limited basis. It is evident (and certainly has been since SARS), they would rather cover up a perceived embarrassment than open it to the light of day and help from outside. They would lose both control and "face".

One can only surmise what is really going on in Sichuan these days. But if it doesn't look good from here with what very sketchy information we have. One can only imagine what it looks like to the Chinese officials who are using draconian measures to keep the lid on and maintain the silence.

In a Communist bureaucracy such as this, it is probable the bureaucrats would rather sacrifice a few (or a few thousand, or a few million - after all, China has lots of extra people) than put their own jobs and careers at risk. After all, this is a Communist state and the good of the Party and State come first and that is determined by those at the top and this leaves local officials quaking in their boots if they anticipate failure. For them, raging disease may be the least of their imminent worries so they act in ways that seem incomprehensible to us but make clear sense to them because of the politics and personal stakes involved.

Weaponized version of scarlet fever? You are probably right and it's H5N1 but the bleeding under the skin doesn't fit.

I'll put you on now.

Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (DIC) can be caused both by infection and by injury. It's a thrombohemorrhagic disorder--blood that's supposed to clot doesn't, and blood that's not supposed to clot, does.

Here's some information from Medline:

____________________________________________________________

Definition Return to top

DIC is a disorder of the "clotting cascade." It results in depletion of clotting factors in the blood.

Causes, incidence, and risk factors Return to top

DIC is when your body's blood clotting mechanisms are activated throughout the body instead of being localized to an area of injury. Small blood clots form throughout the body, and eventually the blood clotting factors are used up and not available to form clots at sites of real tissue injury. Clot dissolving mechanisms are also increased.

This disorder has variable effects, and can result in either clotting symptoms or, more often, bleeding. Bleeding can be severe. DIC may be stimulated by many factors. These include infection in the blood by bacteria or fungus, severe tissue injury (as in burns and head injury), cancer, reactions to blood transfusions, and obstetrical complications (such as retained placenta after delivery).

Risk factors are recent sepsis, recent injury or trauma, recent surgery or anesthesia, complications of labor and delivery, leukemia or disseminated cancer, recent blood transfusion reaction, and severe liver disease.

Symptoms Return to top

Bleeding, possibly from multiple sites in the body
Thrombosis formation evidenced by bluish coloration of the fingers
Sudden bruising

____________________________________________________________

You can find this topic at:

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/000573.htm

DIC looks (in the patient) like a hemorrhagic disease. The important thing to remember is that it can be caused by sepsis (infection--viral or bacterial).

In other words (and I feel like putting this in all caps:

H5N1 or other diseases can cause a hemorrhagic group of symptoms that look exactly like Ebola, Marburg, other hemorrhagic problems, ALL BY ITSELF.

oh-oh

World Not Set To Deal With Flu Strategy for Pandemic Needed, Experts Say

By David Brown Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, July 31, 2005; A01

Public health officials preparing to battle what they view as an inevitable influenza pandemic say the world lacks the medical weapons to fight the disease effectively, and will not have them anytime soon.

Public health specialists and manufacturers are working frantically to develop vaccines, drugs, strategies for quarantining and treating the ill, and plans for international cooperation, but these efforts will take years. Meanwhile, the most dangerous strain of influenza to appear in decades -- the H5N1 "bird flu" in Asia -- is showing up in new populations of birds, and occasionally people, almost by the month, global health officials say.

rest of Washington Post story here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/30/AR2005073001429_pf.html

Thanks for posting that article.

Actually, I find it encouraging that a MSM newspaper is pointing out the problem.

I wonder how many people are reading about Avian Flu in media reports like this and deciding to make their own private "bug out" plans--plans to go to a vacation home, send the kids to a relative's home in the country, stockup on freezer foods so they don't have to shop, stuff like that.

Back when SARS was in Canada and the end of that outbreak was unknown (remember, only stringent quarantine stopped it) our extended family made a crisis plan...I am positive we aren't the only ones.

I am reluctant to mention this, but given the worse case scenario that a H5N1 pandemic represents, nobody would be performing abortions anymore. Every human life would be treasured as a miracle.

Thank you for finding and posting that information Judith Anne. It makes a lot of sense and seemes to add another piece to the puzzle, so to speak.

Thanks

Port media: Beijing limit pig chain coccus sickness report (Abundant news on August 01, 2005) Reporter VOA: Uneven abundant Sichuan's pig chain coccus sickness dissemination scope is continuing to expand. The plague creates the casualty to rise to 34 people. Comes to say from Hong Kong's report that, the Chinese authority adopts the measure limit news media report pig chain coccus sickness epidemic situation, stipulated local reporter does not permit to go arises the local interview, the newspaper only can use official Xinhua News Agency to pass the manuscript, stipulated including must use Xinhua News Agency the title. * The mortality rate high reason is unclear * (abundant news boxun.com) Sichuan has the casualty and the infection population which creates by the pig infection disease the constant rise. Numeral the Chinese medical department announces the demonstration, the casualty rises from the Saturday 32 people for the Sunday 34 people, the infection population increases from day before 163 people to 174 people. It is believed this kind of disease is the pig chain coccus creates. But, the experts at present are not clear to this kind of mortality rate very high infectious disease origin. The Hong Kong Ming Daily reported that, the Chinese authority forbids local reporter to go arises the area to carry on the senate to visit, simultaneously the newspaper reported only can use Xinhua News Agency to pass the manuscript. Ming Daily cites a Sichuan reporter's speech to say that, Hong Kong's reporter concerns the Sichuan pig acute communicable disease the news, is quicker than Sichuan reporter. The Associated Press relates the Sichuan government, attempts to confirm the related media report prohibition rule, but, the Sichuan government aspect has not responded. * Beijing blockade epidemic situation origin by long time * Since the Beijing government has been long-time has the blockade plague popular news the tradition. In 1997, China had the birds and beasts flu, but, the Chinese government information blockade caused the public not to know the circumstances of the matter. The birds and beasts flu transmits Hong Kong and causes the death, after causes Hong Kong returns China the first session chief executive's prestige to come under the severe attack. Many Hong Kong people complain the Hong Kong authority because is afraid offends Beijing, sedulously avoids the birds and beasts flu and mainland China relational question. The birds and beasts flu afterwards in the Southeast Asia country spread, creates the multi- people to die. But, a Chinese example birds and beasts flu has not caused so far the death the report. In 2002 the year's end, China has 萨斯 sickness, also is the serious acute respiratory system syndrome. The Chinese authority blocks off the flow of news. 萨斯 sickness proliferates Hong Kong, and afterwards proliferates to world many countries, creates more than 8,000 people to infect, more than 800 dead. The Chinese authority the news prohibition report procedure which proliferates to the fatal epidemic disease, has received the universal condemnation in the world. The Chinese authority expressed will accept the lesson which 萨斯 will get sick, but, the Beijing government afterwards issued laws and regulations, then will be stipulated stricter control, request all levels of officials in outbreak of epidemics time will have to chase the level to make the report to the higher authority, but, the news media will not have voluntarily to report. * The media is only responsible for the leadership * The criticism expression, the Chinese authority request news media is only responsible for the higher authority, is not responsible for the public, this is knows the circumstances of the matter power depriving to the public. In at mainland China Internet forum, has the reader to block the pig chain coccus sickness proliferation the information expression disaffection. 网民 in official People's Daily sponsor "powerful nation forum" in the website comments that, "on June 24 discovers the death, on July 25 only then sends the news, what in is 1 month doing? Dereliction!" The pig chain coccus may in the excrement, the dust and the corpse survives, the germ infection symptom including is disgusting, has a fever, vomits, the hypodermic hemorrhage. Chain coccus streptococcus is a kind of bacterium general designation. Under the microscope, the bead which this kind of bacterium picture establishes contacts is same, therefore is called as the chain coccus. This kind of bacterium produces one kind of toxin, can become lucky 血球 the cell to create the part or the comprehensive destruction. (Abundant news boxun.com) http://heh.pl/&Sx

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Metro/GH01Ak03.html

QUOTE FROM ARTICLE:"The latest victim, an 84-year-old man, was admitted to the United Christian Hospital on June 16 and remains in stable condition. He has no recent travel history outside Hong Kong and has not visited pig farms."

Thanks for the ping and continued postings, JA. Your latest ping came just as a got a call from a friend across country who almost never calls. He was expressing severe warnings about this particular issue, urging us to get contingencies assembled for various bad to worst case scenarios. Without divulging his profile, let us just say that when he speaks about such things, I listen with profound alertness to exactly what is being said. I will try to post a summary of what I was being told over on my blog once I have time to read and consider all of the supporting info that he sent to me.