Can This Man Help Capture bin Laden?

Time Magazine ^ | Sunday, May. 08, 2005 | By TIM MCGIRK / ISLAMABAD

[Deetes]

The figures huddled beside the graveyard on the road that leads into the Pakistani town of Mardan seemed an unremarkable group, their identities obscured behind the head-to-toe burqas that local women traditionally wear. But these were no ordinary women--in fact, they weren't women at all. Instead, the burqas concealed a group of Pakistani commandos who were waiting last week for a killer. U.S. and Pakistani intelligence had received a tip that a suspected al-Qaeda operative would be traveling to Mardan disguised as a burqa-clad woman. Because any plainclothesmen seen grabbing a woman would attract a hostile mob, the commandos had donned female garb and accosted the suspect as his motorcycle crossed a graveyard. When the fugitive fled through a wheatfield, the commandos shed their burqas and flip-flops and gave chase, eventually cornering him in a house a mile away. After police tossed in tear gas, the suspect, clutching his cell phone, surrendered without a fight.

Even more remarkable than how the burqa bust came about was the identity of the operative that Pakistani officials announced they had netted: Abu Faraj al-Libbi, 40, a Libyan believed to be al-Qaeda's third-highest-ranking official--and one of the few individuals who counterterrorism experts believe may have knowledge of the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and his deputy,

[Deetes]

More details in this Time story ping!!!

[SteveMcKing]

There's speculation that Pakistan intelligence announced his capture souly to tell the man's contacts to scatter and hide. Not the president's fault, but the government is fighting on both sides of the WoT.

[Deetes]

Also there is a story in the London Times about another "al-Libbi"... But they have this one and he is getting the third degree !!!

[eastforker]

Or it could be to flush em out, keepem on the run, kudos to the "lady" commandos.

[LdSentinal]

How can you catch a ghost?

[piasa]

Given that he was captured with a cell phone in hand, it's probably a given that he already called a friend or two to warn them so they could pass on the message.

[CarrotAndStick]

They are the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), a collection of Islamic nutcases, known for their secrecy and conspiracy-spinning ways. They probably know where Osama and his bunch of loons are, but the ISI is a Pakistani organ which even Musharraf has little control over.

There is this former director of the ISI, by the name Hamid Gul. Run a search on this name, and you'll get an idea of the ISI's mindset. If you can, post it here.

[ChinaThreat]

You are right on the money about the ISI. The Taliban and Mujahadeen were their creation. Its almost ridiculous we play this charade with Musharaff. He has no more control oveer these guys than we do.

[American in Israel]

How is it that the Muslims get so incensed about womens panties being put on prisoners heads when they wear burkas all the time voluntarily? One would think they would like the fashion show.I would think it would be much harder to offend people who beat women, torture prisioners and cut of peoples body parts for sound bites... If we are in Arabia, must we must do as the Arabians do? I think we are too civilized to be lowered to their levels, but that is the point isn't it?

[montag813]

"Libby" will never talk without Jack Bauer tactics. Truth serum is not enough. Try the taser-to-testicles approach first to show him you mean bidness. Then threaten to have a naked Lyndie England smear spam on him. And then the COMFY CHAIR!!!

[roses of sharon]

OBL is probably in Iran, I cannot see him hiding out for years in the mountains, he is an elitist who like others to do the dirty work, not himself.

And he is more of a political animal than a spiritual leader that he claims to be, so Iran would be the place to direct all things in Iraq and in Iran.

He is no dummy, he is a faux religious leader, and the idiots who blow themselves up for his cult are easy to find for their Iraq killings of innocents in the market-place.

What is hard to find in the mountains are the smart and educated cult members, like Mohammad Atta, who can do a huge operation.

He will find those kind in Iran where the mullahs will cover for him.

[SevenMinusOne]

How can you catch a ghost?

UBL is very much alive -

Or wait, do you believe we have already killed Al Zawahiri, Mullah Omar and Zarqawi too?? (and we just have most DevGru hunting nobodies up in the Afghan / Pak border for the past 9 months).

[SevenMinusOne]

Its almost ridiculous we play this charade with Musharaff

Musharaff has done more to help us (America) with the WOT than about any other Nation outside of the UK - He is dealing with an extremely complex situation within his own Country one in which we would be completely fked! if his Gov't all went to hell over there.

That is the reality of the real world. Would it have been helpful to have been able to use US SOF to hunt UBL & Zawahiri in the Pak border region - Definitely yes!, Have we been able to (for the most part no) but it is so much more complex than just that -

[SevenMinusOne]

OBL is probably in Iran, I cannot see him hiding out for years in the mountains, he is an elitist who like others to do the dirty work, not himself.

UBL is not in Iran - Makes little sense for either side - First off, UBL has never put himself at the mercy of a Country with a centralized Gov't (this is exactly what Iran is) - Nor does it make any sense for Iran to harbor UBL - There is no benefit to Iran and only an assured U.S. military strike with the full support of the American people (if UBL is found to be living / hiding there) - This is the last thing Iran wants or needs.

UBL has managed to ekk out a survival in the Pak border region - Mainly the one area US SOF have not been able to hunt for him (at least this is surly where UBL ekked out his survival for the first 2 years after 9-11 and he is almost assuredly still there).

[roses of sharon]

Maybe so, I just don't see it in his personality to hang around in those conditions for 4 years.

I see him as wanting to be in the thick of it, directing personnel easily, ie, not thru horseback couriers, and I see him wanting good medical care.

I can see the Mullahs in Iran thinking and perhaps knowing that the US is weakened politically and militarily right now, and for the immediate future.

For Bush to have support for a strike in Iran by the American people and the "world", which means the leftist press, Bush would actually have to argue about "evidence" in the UN again for months and months.

Then he would actually have to find him, which he would not because OBL would escape during the months of arguing, so we would come up empty.

Of course we are speculating, but what do you think of that scenario?

[SevenMinusOne]

Maybe so, I just don't see it in his personality to hang around in those conditions for 4 years. I see him as wanting to be in the thick of it, directing personnel easily, ie, not thru horseback couriers, and I see him wanting good medical care. I can see the Mullahs in Iran thinking and perhaps knowing that the US is weakened politically and militarily right now, and for the immediate future. For Bush to have support for a strike in Iran by the American people and the "world", which means the leftist press, Bush would actually have to argue about "evidence" in the UN again for months and months. Then he would actually have to find him, which he would not because OBL would escape during the months of arguing, so we would come up empty. Of course we are speculating, but what do you think of that scenario?

UBL more than anything else wants to survive! - If that means living and ekking out a survival in the Pak nomans land that is exactly what he'll do (what he has done).

However, it would not be shocking to find UBL in one of the PAK cities (thus growing tired of the life in the nomans region of Pak - The terrian there is simply brutal - However, this terrian keeps him very well protected because launching military operations in that region is incredibly burdensome and risky).

But I could see UBL trying to find his way to more comfortable settings in a PAK city (that wouldn't be shocking, though I still suspect he is in the border region of Pak / Afghanistan).

As for Iran, there is simply no way do I see UBL there - It just makes no sense for either side - UBL has never put himself at the mercy of a centralized Gov't - Iran could turn him over tomorrow and have a get out of jail free card on their nuclear ambitions (to a large extent with the rest of the world because of how it would make them look like they are also fighting the greater WOT).

UBL is just not going to place himself at the mercy of a Gov't (never has in the past and doesn't need to now with the Pak border region being his sanctuary).

As for GWB needing the American support to strike Iran - If UBL was there he would have backing from 90% of the American public to strike Iran for harboring him! - This is the last thing Iran wants (and UBL brings no benefit to the Iranian Gov't....none! - There simply is no reason to take the risk of harboring UBL when he can bring you nothing. In fact, in many ways the Mullahs of Iran do not like to be treated as if they are at the mere level of UBL...They believe they are much bigger, they are the leaders of a Nation...not some terrorist).

UBL knows the mountains of Afghanistan and the Pak border region very well - He'd feel quite at home their, especially if it meant staying alive.

[LdSentinal]

A $50 million bounty on his head for close to four years?

Bin laden is deader than Al Gore's inauguration ball.

[SevenMinusOne]

A $50 million bounty on his head for close to four years? Bin laden is deader than Al Gore's inauguration ball.

Utterly silly - There has been a $25 million on Zawahiri for the same time period - A $10 million on Omar - And a $25 million on Zarqawi now for over a year and a half (while living among millions in the cities of Iraq.....Money alone doesn't always buy HVT's - Or do you believe all these people are dead as well

But irregardless of that UBL is alive! - That is the reality - He has ekked out a survival in the one area US SOF have not been able to hunt for him (independently). That is the Pak border region.

Also, UBL has not only put out audio tapes but also put out a video tape trying to strangely influence the US Presidential election (and basically saying "no mas" in it...if we removed GWB) - And don't give me the Hollywood BS that the video was faked......Al Qeade doesn't have the capabilities to reproduce a video of that nature and make it past muster....No way (and all in the Intel business no this).

Additionally, GWB, Cheney and Rumsfeld have all been on record in late 2001 and early 2002 speculating that UBL "might be dead"....this tone changed in mid-2002 after verifiable evidence came in (was obtained) that showed that UBL was definitely alive. All have since mid-2002 been clear that UBL is alive - These are serious men who do not lie or play word games.

Lastly, I would suggest you haven't really a clear understanding of the terrain in the Pak border region. It is simply brutal and near impossible to locate a single individual in. It is very reasonable and understandable that UBL would be able to avoid capture in this region. - Also, understand we pulled DevGru out of Iraq and put them in the Afghan / Pak border about 9 months ago now - These guys are hunting HVT's (UBL) not nobodies....Not when we still have many needs in Iraq.