Posted on 05/05/2005 5:55:30 PM PDT by blam
Blair majority 'slashed'
By George Jones, Political Editor
(Filed: 06/05/2005)
Tony Blair was heading back to No 10 early today but with his authority dented by the prospect of a substantially reduced majority.
An exit poll announced after the polls closed at 10pm suggested that Labour had suffered a backlash from the Iraq war after the longest and most closely fought election campaign for more than a decade.
Mr Blair, who is 52 today, is on course to enter the history books as the first Labour prime minister to win three successive elections. But the exit poll suggested a two and a half per cent swing from Labour to the Conservatives, with the Tories and Liberal Democrats poised to make gains in marginal seats.
The poll conducted for the BBC and ITV forecast a Labour majority of 66, compared with the 167 landslide Mr Blair achieved four years ago.
It put the Conservatives on 209 seats, a gain of 44 seats, but suggested that it would be a disappointing night for the Liberal Democrats, gaining around two seats. Labour would have 356 seats.
There was a sense of foreboding at Labour's headquarters as it became clear that the battle had been much tougher than they expected after eight years in power.
Although the Tories will have suffered three defeats in a row, if they pick up 40 seats and get above the benchmark figure of 200 MPs it will be seen as a significant stage on their road to recovery and a personal success for Michael Howard. In 2001 under William Hague the party made a net gain of one seat.
A majority of 66 would be enough for Labour to govern for a full term. But it would be a severe blow to Mr Blair's personal credibility after having secured two landslides in 1997 and 2001.
It will make it more difficult for him to pursue radical policies such as identity cards and public services reform and could lead to pressure from Labour MPs for him to bring forward his handover to Gordon Brown.
Despite a fifth and final opinion poll in the last 24 hours of the campaign showing Mr Blair on course for a third win with a three-figure majority, all the parties said it was the most difficult election to forecast since 1992.
After three months of continuous campaigning by the parties, with the leaders travelling thousands of miles criss-crossing the country, a Mori poll for the London Evening Standard indicated that one in four voters went to the polling booths still uncertain whether to reward or punish the Prime Minister after eight years in power.
It put Labour on 38 per cent, the Conservatives on 33 and the Liberal Democrats on 23 - ratings similar to four polls yesterday, including YouGov for The Telegraph.
The figures suggested another 100-plus majority but all the parties said they believed the result would be much closer.
Labour was taking nothing for granted and joined the other parties in an intensive effort during the day to encourage supporters to go out and vote.
Despite the convention that the parties do not campaign on polling day, an e-mail in the name of John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, was sent to Labour supporters in a last-minute appeal to them not to desert the party.
"Even though the polls show Labour in front, it doesn't mean we'll win," Mr Prescott said. "When I was elected to Parliament in 1970, we were 16 points ahead and everyone assumed Labour had it in the bag. But we lost."
Mr Prescott repeated the controversial claim that, if one in 10 Labour voters stayed at home or cast a protest vote for another party, Mr Howard would be in Downing Street in the morning.
Mr Howard delayed his return to his Folkestone and Hythe constituency to visit a telephone call centre in the Midlands to phone candidates in target seats and offer last-minute encouragement. His wife, Sandra, who has been at his side throughout the campaign, joined in the ring-round. Mr Howard said they all agreed that the party was "going great guns".
Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, accompanied by his wife Sarah, cast his vote in Fort William in his Highlands constituency.
The Prime Minister, accompanied by his wife Cherie and sons Euan, 21, and 19-year-old Nicky, who were voting for the first time in a general election, were among a steady trickle of voters going to the polls in the village of Trimdon Colliery, in his constituency of Sedgefield, Co Durham.
Labour has led the opinion polls throughout but the Tories said they thought their campaigning had got through "under the radar" in the target constituencies and was not picked up by the polls.
They were confident of regaining a number of suburban and rural seats.
Their confidence was jolted by signs of a last-minute surge in support for the Liberal Democrats, particularly in the South West, where the Conservatives were defending a number of marginal constituencies.
Mr Kennedy said he believed that his opposition to the war in Iraq would result in his party making gains.
Local elections were also taking place in 34 county councils, three unitary authorities and four mayoral contests in England.
There were elections in 26 councils in Northern Ireland.
Current Results:
Labour--132
Conservative--14
Liberal Democrats--11
Scottish National--3
Pilad Cymru--2
Perhaps the author, Mr. Jones, is attempting to influence U.S. perception prior to other British Journalists.
Afterall, we here all know what happens with "exit polls"!
How do we know it was the Iraq war that was unpopular? Why is this the only issue mentioned?
Blair has been in office for a long time and has been widely disliked for a long time. What keeps him in office is that the candidates the conservatives have put up for PM are even less attractive.
Blair scrapes through on meagre majority
06.05.2005 - 09:55 CET | By Lucia Kubosova
http://www.euobserver.com/?aid=19009&print=1
"The provisional figures show Labour received 36 per cent of the votes, down by almost 6 per cent and with about half the victory margin of that in the two previous votes in 1997 and 2001. The Conservatives came second with 33 per cent and only a small gain of 0.6 per cent compared to the last elections. The Liberal Democrats followed in third place, receiving 23 per cent - 4 per cent more than their previous result... The UK will take over from the Luxembourg EU presidency on 1 July, and is planning to focus its mandate on environmental and development aid issues... London will keep its eye on France in late May, where the result of a referendum on the EU constitution could influence its decision on whether to hold a similar poll in the UK. Mr Blair had suggested earlier that a French No would mean there was no need to vote on the new treaty in the UK but then appeared to change his mind."
Let's be fair - it's only meagre in comparison to what Labour is used to in previous elections. Yes, Labour is on its way out, by stages, but they still hold a reasonable majority.
Regards, Ivan
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