Chances of passage are very good. The legislature is dominated by leftists who haven't met a gun (or ammunition) control bill they didn't love. It's already passed out of one committee, and will be heard in the appropriations committee. It will likely pass. I'd have to look it up to see exactly what the status is today, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it passes. Now, the question is, will Arnold sign it? He signed the bill last year banning .50 BMG rifles, but vetoed a bill tacking on a per round tax on ammunition.
I hope it fails because Kalifornia shows the way for the leftists in the other states and we could expect to see this nonsense spread. Is the NRA involved in this fight?