You are way off - UBL is most certainly alive (as is Al Zawahiri and Mullah Omar...or do you believe they are all dead as well??) -
Fact is UBL has ekked out a survival in the one area where US SOF haven't been able to hunt for him independently...that is the Pak border region -
Though, even hunting for him independently in that region wouldn't guarantee success in finding him - The area is simply brutal to operate in -
But UBL is most certainly alive (hell, he put out a video discussing John Kerry last year....in 2001 or 2002...he wouldn't have had a clue to who Kerry was) - And irregardless of video's....follow the shooters....we don't have almost all of DevGru humping the mountains of the Pak / Afghan border region looking for a nobody - These guys hunt top-HVT's -
IMO UBL could be tending his rose bushes in a little house in Paris...NO-body is looking for him there! Hiding in plain sight is often the most difficult to find.