| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 05/31/2005 10:24:17 AM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
Per request of poster. |
Posted on 05/04/2005 12:42:04 AM PDT by Judith Anne
We know nothing of the survivor(s), if any. I understand there may have been a second survivor over the past few days?
But, 2/out of 282 or whatever # at this point is more to do with luck, IMHO.
genefromjersey has a very interesting thread going on here:
(Vanity) Marburg: Malice or Malpractice ?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1396425/posts?page=8
He corresponded with ProMed speculating about the origins of this outbreak...
Also, please see post 100 for a first-hand report by an MSF doctor, (google translation) posted by tdewey10.
A sad comment from an Angolan on their government and this disease:
http://www.angonoticias.com/full_headlines.php?id=5120
Anónimo
A unica salvacao que temos para essa perigosa enfermidade e somente horando a Deus, porque se confiarmos nos corruptos todos acabaremos por morrer, por isso meus irmaos vos pergunto o seguinte, o que e que os ladroes ja fizeram para tranquilizar o povo sobre esta enfermidade?
Roughly translated (via the Mrs. (so much better than Google))
Our only hope against this terrible disease is to pray to God, if we trust our government we are all going to die. I have one question what did the thieves do already to tranquilize all the people against this disease?
Nice commentary on the day the Angolan Minister of Health says all is well.
Sad...and I cannot help but agree with the poor writer of that comment.
This is an article from SouthAfrica from yesterday. There is nothing new it it; except I think this is the first time I've seen printed 280 dead. ? I've seen in the 270's to 279, but I don't think I've seen 280. It says that 11 total have died outside of Uige. Not that the count means anything. There sure is no news today. I remain hopeful that's a good thing.
---------
Marburg kills 280
03/05/2005 09:53 - (SA)
Luanda - The death toll from the outbreak of the Ebola-like Marburg virus in Angola has reached 280, most of whom succumbed to the disease in the northern Uige province, the health ministry and the World Health Organisation said late on Monday.
Of the 280 dead, 269 were in Uige province and a further 208 people are under medical observation in that region after coming into contact with an infected person, a statement from the ministry and the WHO said.
There have been a total of 313 cases detected of the Marburg virus since monitoring of the outbreak, the worst ever recorded, began on October 13, it added.
The Ebola-like Marburg virus can kill a healthy person in a week, causing diarrhoea and vomiting followed by severe internal bleeding.
Its exact origin is unknown and there is no cure. The virus spreads through contact with bodily fluids such as blood, excrement, vomit, saliva, sweat and tears, but can be contained with relatively simple hygenic precautions, according to experts.
Angolan health officials have stressed that corpses present a very high risk of contamination as burial rituals often involve touching the deceased to bid farewell.
Deputy Health Minister Jose Van Dunem told journalists that a health team travelled to the village of Ngombe, 150km north of the city of Uige, on Sunday and were told that a woman who had attended the funeral of a relative in Uige had spread the virus to the village.
"When she returned to Ngombe, she contaminated 12 other members of her family and they all died," said Van Dunem.
A traditional healer who treated many patients sick with Marburg in a town outside of Uige has also died from the haemorraghic fever, he added.
No new cases of the Marburg virus have been detected outside the province.
Results from a blood test on a suspected case of Marburg in nearby Malange province were negative, he said.
The Marburg virus was discovered in 1967 when German laboratory workers in a town of the same name were infected by monkeys from Uganda.
Until now the most serious outbreak of the disease had been in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where 123 people died between 1998 and 2000.
http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/News/0,,2-11-1447_1698842,00.html
Betcha they were "administratively re-classified".
Damn, I am getting good at this. /sarc
Thanks for posting. Note that another couple hundred are under medical observation after exposure...
It has been six weeks since the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed an outbreak of Marburg fever in Angola. Today, the epidemic is still not under control, and as of April 30 there have been 271 deaths out of 301 confirmed cases. The disease has also taken a heavy toll on medical staff, claiming the lives of at least 19 Angolan health professionals.
The situation is still quite alarming. More dead are collected every day for burial in the city of Uige, the epicenter of the epidemic. Since the alert was given, a new focal point has emerged in the hospital of Songo, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) northwest of Uige. ......
http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/news/2005/05-02-2005.shtml
If I may interject a voice of experience...
A single extended thread helps keep the "Oh my gosh, I had no idea, can you explain how this started ..." crowd posts down to a minimum.
I think new information should continue to be posted both on a single main thread, like this, and separately as new threads, for people who might not see it otherwise.
For people who have followed this outbreak from the beginning, a single combined thread is easier to track new and more accurate information with less extraneous comments.
May 3, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Thirty-eight new cases of Marburg hemorrhagic fever have been reported in the northern Angola province of Uige in the past few days, despite hopes that the outbreak was being contained.
The tally yesterday stood at 313 cases, including 280 deaths, with another 208 people under observation, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Angolan health ministry announced yesterday, according to a report by Agence France-Presse (AFP). The WHO had reported 275 cases with 255 deaths as of Apr 27, which included only 9 new cases in the preceding week.
The latest figures mean the deadly Marburg, which has no cure, has an 89.5% fatality rate among known cases in this outbreak.
The AFP story said no new cases have been reported recently outside Uige Province. But despite a major international response to the epidemic, transmission in Uige appears to be continuing.
A health team that traveled to a village called Ngombe on Sunday learned that a woman who had attended a funeral in Uige had spread the illness to her village, said Jose Van Dunem, Angola's deputy health minister, as reported by AFP.
"When she returned to Ngombe, she contaminated 12 other members of her family, and they all died," Van Dunem said. In addition, a traditional healer who had Marburg patients also died. Neither of those incidents appeared to have a connection with recent lapses in hospital infection control that had prompted statements by WHO officials on Apr 29.
Since the outbreak drew international attention, healthcare workers have worked diligently to stop it. Some lessons clearly have taken hold among the residents of Uige. A British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) report today described one incident involving the infection of a 1-month-old girl.
Marburg virus had killed the baby's mother, and the rest of the family had fled, the BBC reported. Neighbors, knowing they would risk infection and death by responding to the ailing baby, had little choice but to listen to her cries. After she died, they pointed the home out to healthcare workers, who sanitized the home and the baby before burying her, the BBC story said.
The same report quoted David Daigle, a WHO spokesman, as saying that healthcare workers are receiving more alerts about sick people than about dead bodies.
"We have a whole contingent of Angolan doctors here now and we've strengthened our team sizes," Daigle said. "So we're optimistic, but certainly not ready to say it is contained."
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/bt/vhf/news/may0305marb.html
ROFL!! Thanks! I can always use a laugh, even when it's inappropriate.
That might cause readers of this thread only to miss some valuable responses on the other thread, but only if they're not paying attention.
Once again, it's important to reiterate that the fatality rate so far is over 99%, not 89.5%. They are assuming that everyone that is sick will live, in order to come up with that 89.5%, and we know that's not true.
Even using their 89.5% fatality rate, that leaves 33 patients with Marburg still alive, of whom 89.5% will die. So, that means a max of three survivors, out of 313. I suspect that's well over 98% fatality. Just guessing.
Now THATS kinda ominous.
Is the way I did it tonight, with genefromjersey's vanity thread, the way you're thinking of it?
Contrast this to the CIDRAP report. Where does this guy keep his head!
Source: Government of Angola - Date: 02 May 2005
Uige 05/02 - Angola's Health Minister Sebastiao Veloso said on Sunday in northern Uije province that the heamorrhagic fever of Marburg virus, that is affecting the region for the past seven months, is currently in its eradication phase.
The Government official was speaking to journalists moments after returning from a go-and-see and social mobilisation journey to Gombe locality, Bungo district, 70-km of Uije city.
In this locality there had been registered about 17 cases of the deadly virus, being 14 members of a single family.
Mr Veloso revealed that the disease is currently confined in northern Uije province.
"We have confined the disease in Uije province, he affirmed, adding that the cases are registering a significant reduction, ranging from zero to two cases".
*cough-cough* I'm fine, really. *cough-cough* ;-D
Once again, it's important to reiterate that the fatality rate so far is over 99%, not 89.5%. They are assuming that everyone that is sick will live, in order to come up with that 89.5%, and we know that's not true.
Even using their 89.5% fatality rate, that leaves 33 patients with Marburg still alive, of whom 89.5% will die. So, that means a max of three survivors, out of 313. I suspect that's well over 98% fatality. Just guessing.
Yes, I understand, thanks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.