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To: Rodney King
Your hedging model doesn't explain why prices are high now. Supply isn't down; in fact, now that much of Iraq's oil is flowing again, supply should actually be higher than it has been for the last two years or so. OPEC production is maxed out (if we are to believe those thieves). The explanation offered is that China is a new player in the market and that they are driving a surge in demand. I doubt it. The Chinese aren't stupid, so I can't imagine why they would suddenly develop a taste for oil at $55 a barrel. As you say, it would simply set them up for a bust if the price ever drops again.

No, I think this one can be attributed to the trans-national oil cartel that can sell every drop it produces at whatever price it demands because it alone controls the supply, processing, and distribution of an inflexible-demand product. In other words, we are victims of a monopoly, plain and simple.

33 posted on 05/03/2005 8:39:38 AM PDT by IronJack
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To: IronJack
at whatever price it demands

It doesn't demand any price at all. What is it going to do, refuse to pump oil? Even if it existed, the oil cartel couldn't demand--demand is on the other end of the equation.

34 posted on 05/03/2005 8:43:42 AM PDT by RightWhale (These problems would not exist if we had had a moon base all along)
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To: IronJack
Your hedging model doesn't explain why prices are high now.

Right, and it wasn't meant to. Prices are high because supply growth has slowed while demand in India and China has increased, while the dollar has decreased.

Supply isn't down; in fact, now that much of Iraq's oil is flowing again, supply should actually be higher than it has been for the last two years or so.

Supply growth has been slower than demand growth.

OPEC production is maxed out (if we are to believe those thieves).

It's hard to tell really.

The explanation offered is that China is a new player in the market and that they are driving a surge in demand. I doubt it. The Chinese aren't stupid, so I can't imagine why they would suddenly develop a taste for oil at $55 a barrel. As you say, it would simply set them up for a bust if the price ever drops again.

Chinese demand is a simple fact. China is now booming, which is coincidental to higher energy prices. I would point out however, that while oil is very high in terms of dollars, that is in part because the dollar is down. Oil prices are not as high around other parts of the world in terms of local currency.

No, I think this one can be attributed to the trans-national oil cartel that can sell every drop it produces at whatever price it demands because it alone controls the supply, processing, and distribution of an inflexible-demand product. In other words, we are victims of a monopoly, plain and simple.

Thats simply not the case. The oil market is extremely competitive. If it was the case that they could sell at whateve price they wanted, why did they wait until now to raise prices, why didn't they raise them 10 years ago?

35 posted on 05/03/2005 8:44:16 AM PDT by Rodney King (No, we can't all just get along.)
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