Bush & Hu Remaking the Global Order?(including N. Korean problem)

The Daily NK ^ | 05/03/05 | Shin Ju-hyon

[TigerLikesRooster]

/begin my translation

Bush & Hu Remaking the Global Order?

Entering into 5 'consecutive summits,' N. Korean nuclear crisis may take a sudden turn

[ 2005-05-03 18:16 ]

President Bush and President Hu will have five summits this year.

U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao are scheduled to have five summits this year to discuss issues to concern both countries.

 All attention are focused on whether they can reach an important agreement on N. Korean nuclear crisis at the summits.

According to  May 2nd issue of 'Ming-bao,' a Hong Kong daily(note: a pro-Chinese daily,) starting with the May 8th Sino-American summit at the 60th Anniversary of (WWII) Victory in Moscow, Russia, all the way to the November APEC Summit in Pusan, S. Korea, there will be five consecutive summits in six months.

date	occasion
May 8-9, 2005	At the 60th Anniversary of (WWII) Victory in Moscow, Russia
July 6-7, 2005	At G8 Summit in Scotland
early Sept., 2005	In U.S. during President Hu Jintao's tour of U.S, Canada, and Mexico.
mid-Sept., 2005	At the 60th Anniversary of  U.N. in New York, U.S.
Nov., 2005	In Beijing after Pusan APEC Summit

It is unprecedented to have summits so frequently ever since both countries established diplomatic relations. It reflects that there are many urgent issues demanding close discussions.

U.S. and China have already agreed to embark on a global dialogue to narrow their difference on world issues and future. These summits are in fact believed to be the venues where both powers would discuss their designs on how to shape the global order in the coming years.

N. Korean Nuclear Crisis Emerging as their Agenda

According to observers, both heads of state would discuss in depth setting up high-level contacts for the global dialogue, E. Asian regional security involving Taiwan, American concerns for Chinese military buildup, and N. Korean nuclear crisis.

The resolution of N. Korean nuclear crisis would depends on how much they can narrow the gap between their strategic interests. They are still in the probing phase, so it may be difficult to reach an agreement.

However, according to another perspective, it is possible to work out the deal on N. Korean nuclear crisis even before both countries complete their strategic dialogue. The urgent nature of the issue could push the N. Korean issue to the top of their agendas.

The underlying premise behind this reasoning is that they do not want to prolong N. Korean nuclear trouble, now that both countries decided to sustain cooperative relationship. 

A Big Deal on N. Korean Nukes Possible after Working Out the Global Order.

Former U.S. Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger pointed out last July, "China decided to continue the cooperation with U.S..  N. Korean nuclear crisis  has been viewed only as the arms control issue between N. Korea and U.S., but the shared understanding for finding a more fundamental solution must be developed now." 

Lee Tae-hwan, a research associate at (a S. Korean think tank,) Sejong Institute, commented, "Both countries feel the need to reach a mutual strategic agreement on global order and E. Asian regional order. If both countries work out their difference between their global interests, they may reach a big deal, but it is rather premature at this point." 

He went on to say, "Since their conflict is not the clash of raw powers, but rather of influences, I think they would find a way to avoid the confrontation." 

Under Chinese Sanction, N. Korea to Go down in 2 Years

A Chinese expert predicted, "By its nature, N. Korean nuclear crisis cannot last beyond this year. If N. Korea sticks to the current position, it is highly likely that a sanction against N. Korea will be jointly implemented at U.S.-China summit(s.) If China fully implements the sanction, N. Korea could last no more than a year or two."

As for the possibility of 'the big deal between both countries for regime-change in N. Korea,'  which is being floated in some circles, he replied, "China can consider the regime-change in N. Korea, but it would be difficult to imagine that China would make such a promise to another country."

Experts highlight that the relationship between U.S. and China is both competition and cooperation. Still, both emphasize cooperation for now, and won't let the conflict over N. Korea out of control, according to the experts.

Another factor contributing to the possible U.S.-China cooperation (on N. Korean nuke issue,) is that the International Community views N. Korea as 'having lost any rationality.'


Shin Ju-hyon  shin@dailynk.com

/end my translation

[TigerLikesRooster]

No other media so far has picked on this. This is the first I came across. Having 5 summits in 6 months for 'global dialogue,' working out the deal on how to shape the whole world, sounds really significant. It seems that Kim Jong-il's fate would be sealed in the 'global dialogue.'

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[BJClinton]

It seems that Kim Jong-il's fate would be sealed in the 'global dialogue.'

He is a piece on the chessboard of China and the United States. Beind the pawns, to be sure, but to the right and left of the king and queen.

[MARTIAL MONK]

Hu who?

[An Old Marine]

Sounds like wishful thinking to me. North Korea is very useful to China as a pain in the American ass. China does not wish us well any more than the old Soviet Union did.

We'd do well to remember that when dealing with China we actually are holding all of the cards that matter.

[Carry_Okie]

We'd do well to remember that when dealing with China we actually are holding all of the cards that matter.

I wouldn't say all the cards. We owe them money. We depend upon them as a supplier for our domestic manufacturing to an embarassing degree. Our inflation would look a lot worse but for Chinese slave labor. The Chinese have power and they've earned it. If much of this country doesn't get off its ignorant flabby ass we could well get run over.

[EQAndyBuzz]

China's biggest fear is a NK without Kim. Think about it. A unified Korea means expanding manufacturing to give these people jobs.

The only country that gets hurt is China.

[Wudan Master]

Why should China, a nation of 1.3 billion, people willing to work for peanuts be afraid of the Koreas ie, North Korea population = 17 million South Korea population= 34 million

Gosh, Greater Chengdu added together with greater Shanghai alone is bigger than the 2 Koreas combined

Greater Chengdu= 40 million
Greater Shanghai= 20 milion

[SevenofNine]

Damn Dubya going one busy Dude Tiger

I had feeling Chia Pet Kim going be very roaney LOL!

[GVnana]

"By its nature, N. Korean nuclear crisis cannot last beyond this year. If N. Korea sticks to the current position, it is highly likely that a sanction against N. Korea will be jointly implemented at U.S.-China summit(s.) If China fully implements the sanction, N. Korea could last no more than a year or two."

Very interesting. Nice find! It's hard to imagine that Kin Jong-il is any real benefit to China.

[DugwayDuke]

"Sounds like wishful thinking to me. North Korea is very useful to China as a pain in the American ass. China does not wish us well any more than the old Soviet Union did."

No, it's realistic when you consider that it is not in China's best interest for South Korea or Japan to become nuclear powers. NK pops a test nuke and SK and Japan will go nuclear within a year. No, China has reasons to ensure this doesn't happen.

[Carry_Okie]

China's biggest fear is a NK without Kim. Think about it. A unified Korea means expanding manufacturing to give these people jobs.

There are forces in South Korea that don't want a unified peninsula either. Leftist Southern appeasers to the Kim family fear the backlash from a free North Korea. Industrialists using Northern slave labor don't want it either.

[EQAndyBuzz]

"Gosh, Greater Chengdu added together with greater Shanghai alone is bigger than the 2 Koreas combined."

And who would the Americans rather buy from taking into account the geopolitical gamesmanship? China or a unified Korea? I am not sure myself, however it would force China to do some thinking.

[BenLurkin]

Interesting article. Thank you.

(Funny what we do not hear in the American media.)

[monkeywrench]

I hope President Bush doesn't make any deals that might limit Japan or SK. They need to nuke up. China must not be allowed to have the upper hand in Asia.

[Wudan Master]

It is the birth-right of each individual human beng to have the choice of buying what he likes

Nobody can force him to do otherwise

[EQAndyBuzz]

What's your point?

[Wudan Master]

sorry, about that

just my sometimes, useless., pointless ramblings,which quite pointless

[EQAndyBuzz]

That's ok. I didn't know where you were going with that. It wasn't meant to be a facetious retort.

[Quix]

I guess the puppet masters are insisting that 2 of their major . . . roles . . .

are getting to know each other and coordinate the globalization more . . . fully?

Sobering. Though I'd rather have them meeting than throwing nukes at each other.

Though that could certainly be on a future schedule.