Posted on 05/01/2005 6:19:00 AM PDT by MississippiMasterpiece
President Bush made it clear last week that he sees no quick fixes to the nation's energy woes. The problem has been long in coming, the argument goes, and so will the solutions. But if history is any guide, there is one thing he could do immediately: bring back the 55 miles-per-hour speed limit.
It has been done before. Along with record oil and gasoline prices, improvements in fuel efficiency and a lasting economic recession, speed limits helped curb fuel consumption for the first time in American postwar history between 1974 and 1984.
Of course, energy eventually became cheap again, the economy expanded and Americans became complacent and unwilling to make more sacrifices.
Instead of opting for small fuel-efficient cars, people switched to large sport utility vehicles and larger pickups. As drivers groaned and states fought for their right to speed, the limit was raised.
While oil consumption in most industrialized nations has either leveled off or declined, in the United States, oil demand has soared 38 percent since the first oil shock of 1973.
The Bush administration's focus over the last four years has been to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, which are also priorities for the energy industry, instead of finding ways to cut back on energy demand, which until very recently has been left out of the picture.
"We are in a boxing match, and the president keeps one hand tied to his back," said Steven Nadel, the executive director for the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, a nonprofit research group in Washington. "We're punching with supplies and not using demand. We're at a disadvantage."
Other industrialized countries, especially in Europe, have been much more successful than the United States and have managed to actually lower oil demand, or at least keep it in check. That comes from higher diesel use and higher taxes. In France and Germany, a gallon of gasoline sells for as much as $6, with taxes accounting for about 80 percent of that.
Few politicians in America might risk ridicule or rejection by explicitly supporting higher taxes on gasoline, one of the surest ways to limit the nation's dependence on oil.
"Even the least outrageous gasoline tax would have choked off some demand, and the money would have gone to our own government instead of being transferred overseas," said Robert K. Kaufmann, a professor of geography at the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University. "Of course, that would have to involve personal sacrifice, which is off the table politically."
There are other ways to curb consumption that may be only slightly less challenging, analysts say. One would be to increase the average mileage per gallon requirement. After Congress passed legislation forcing automakers to act in 1975, average mileage almost doubled to 27.5 miles a gallon in 1987 from 14 in 1972. But it has since slipped back to 24 because of S.U.V.'s, and Congress shows no inclination to toughen the standards.
Another way to sharply reduce demand - and improve mileage - would be to encourage drivers to buy diesel cars, which offer as much as 60 percent more fuel efficiency, said Theodore R. Eck, an energy consultant and former chief economist at the Amoco oil company.
"The neat thing here is that this is off-the-shelf technology," he said. But the trade-off to diesel fuels also includes higher emissions of nitrate oxide, a pollutant that is responsible for smog.
In a recent speech, President Bush suggested that diesel cars might be made eligible for similar income tax credits as hybrid cars, which are quickly turning into best sellers with long waiting lists.
The present predicament behind high oil prices is quite different than the oil shocks of the 1970's and 1980's, which were a result of producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cutting oil supplies. Today, the price shock comes from rapidly increasing demand, driven largely by China, but also by the United States and its strong car culture.
After rising 33 percent in the last year, crude oil prices in New York slipped below $50 a barrel on Friday for the first time in 10 weeks. They closed down nearly 4 percent at $49.72 a barrel.
Still, Americans can expect to pay record prices for gasoline this summer. According to the latest national average compiled by the Energy Department, gasoline prices at the pump averaged $2.24 a gallon, up 42 cents from last year; they are expected to touch a record $2.35 a gallon this summer.
Polls show that higher gasoline prices are increasingly hurting Americans, and the president is pressing Congress to revive an energy bill that has been stalled for four years.
Since the last energy shock of the 1980's, the economy as a whole has shifted toward services and away from heavy industry and is now less dependent on oil than it once was. But that has been more than offset by the rise of oil demand for the transportation sector, which accounts for two of every three barrels of crude oil consumed here; gasoline alone amounts to half the nation's oil consumption.
"We've had this situation building up for years, and yet the focus continues to be on the very long term," said Shirley Neff, an adjunct professor at Columbia University and a former economist on the Senate Energy Committee. "We have to focus on demand and be more efficient in our energy use. We need something like an Apollo program for the transportation sector."
But restricting demand might also weaken economic growth, an unpalatable prospect for any government, especially at a time when some are already blaming energy costs for a slowdown in growth.
"It's true that there is a limit to what you could achieve through a traditional energy policy in one or two years," said Fridtjof Unander, an analyst with the International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on ways to reduce their consumption.
The 55 miles-per-hour speed limit came as a result of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. The Nixon administration ordered states to lower their maximum limit to save fuel at a time when the first oil shock threatened to bring the economy to a standstill.
After steadily rising each year, gasoline demand suddenly stopped growing in 1974 and remained nearly flat for the next decade, keeping oil consumption in check.
Roland Hwang, the vehicles policy director at the Natural Resources Defense Council in San Francisco, estimated the savings of the speed limit in 1983 at 2.5 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel, or 2.2 percent of the total use for these types of fuels.
But as gas lines faded from people's memories and energy prices went down, the federal speed limit was relaxed in 1987, allowing states to set higher caps of 65 miles an hour. Once more, gasoline consumption surged.
Smaller efforts today could make a difference. For example, driving at 10 miles an hour above the 65 miles-per-hour limit increases fuel consumption by 15 percent; inflating tires properly cuts gasoline use by 2 percent; keeping engines idle while in line wastes millions of gallons.
The trouble is that few drivers bother with these suggestions, Mr. Hwang said. "People are basically too lazy to pump their tires up."
I don't think that's "on the clearance table." VW sells a decent number of those.
That said, the diesels certainly don't get the attention of the gasoline-hybrids.
Edmunds.com is doing a long-term test of a Toyota Prius. The bottom line: they hate it. It is underpowered, and the steering is awful. They get a little above 40 mpg, which is just about the same as the Jetta TDI, which is a lot more fun to drive.
Diesels got a bad reputation in this country, thanks to GM. But, time and technology has moved on, and the time has come to grant some tax and regulatory breaks to allow these engines to become more prevalent, as they offer greater efficiency and fuel flexibility.
But we'd still be "wasting gas" if we drove that fast!!
We need to adopt this type of horse power if we really want to conserve gas!!
...and only shower once a month! Imagine how much energy France saves on hot water- or, how about retirement apartments with no air conditioning?
Table of various state tax rates including gasoline taxes: http://www.taxfoundation.org/variousrates.html
Add a 18.4 cent per gallon federal gasoline tax. So the total gasoline tax in Ohio is currently 44.4 cents per gallon.
NYMEX wholesale gasoline for May delivery closed at $1.475/gal on Friday.
$1.475 + $ 0.444 = $1.919 per gallon wholesale including Ohio tax. Current retail price near my house is $2.099. That leaves $0.18 / gallon for the delivery truck and the station. The credit card I use gives a 5% rebate on gasoline, giving a net retail price of $1.994 / gallon, or only 7.5 cents / gallon over wholesale.
That said, I do agree with the point that people aren't all that concerned about the current fuel prices; the media have been overplaying them. Adjusted for inflation, they're not even close to the historical highs set around 1980.
Oh yeah. I can see it now, blonde killed while talking on cell phone, shifting gears, fixing makeup and changing DVD--it's the eevil SUV's fault.
Actually, in many respects I'm in favor of going back to noisy, rough riding vehicles with manual steering, manual transmissions, and a bare minimum of modern geegaws. The more aware that a person is that they are travelling down the road, the more they will tend to pay attention to what they are doing.
The more insulated they feel from the outside environment, the less they seem to be aware of what is going on around them.
You're talking about the new autobahn, correct?
I recall a part west of Frankfurt that had one hell of a downgrade, I believe it was in the Spessarts, where my little 65 VW topped 100 mph while filled with parachute equipment and a white knuckled passenger.
The European elites like highly-taxed gas. It keeps all the riff-raff off the autobahns
That won't solve the problem. In fact, that just ends up wasting precious police resources as they'll spend more time trying to chase down speeders. Small wonder why even the California Highway Patrol liked the ending of the 55 mph limit because it freed up their resources to catch the blatant speeders (especially those who go over 75 mph) and speeding trucks.
FYI--You don't drill for LNG, just natural gas. You have to process it and liquefy it at the surface.
NYT belling the cat again, eh?
Installing an aftermarket vacuum gauge on the dash, and learning how to use it would save plenty of gas, and you go just as fast!
I can dream can't I?
Oh, no not again.
Here's an energy plan: have a target to have 80% of US electricity needs met by nuke power within 10 years. The French managed to do it.
With the switch to low-sulfur fuels starting in September 2006, it might be perfect to do this change I suggested at the same time.
Obviously, the people who wrote this piece are North Easterners who don't know what the hell they're talking about!
Red state vs. Blue state.
We could all become Amish, too. That would save a lot of oil, especially in the west where I live, where a short trip to anywhere is 20 miles.
Maybe we could persuade Jimmy Carter to return and lead us in a new, inglorious era of government-induced scarcity and malaise. It's the Democratic way.
One of the few things the French were actually very smart at. They standardized on a single design licensed from Westinghouse and carefully made a whole bunch of improvements common to all plants so 1) safety is very high and 2) a person trained to operate the systems of one plant can operate all the plants in the same country. I wouldn't be surprised that if we start building nuclear plants in the USA again it will be of a standardized design based on highly safe nuclear technologies such as pebble-bed reactors, which are just about meltdown-proof.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.