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To: tdewey10; Judith Anne
These numbers indicate that the growth is increasing, not decreasing as previously advertised.

The basic dynamics of this epidemic can be modeled somewhat simply because the fatality rate is 100%. See Derive for a derivation.

The fundamental parameter (which you can infer from common sense) is the ratio of the cumulative deaths to cumulative cases (D_c/I_c). The lower this ratio, the faster the growth. This is common sense because it indicates that the number of active cases, which are the ones putatively that spread the disease, is increasing.

Indeed, including these 4 cases, the total number of reported actives is 24, which is the highest it has been in 4 weeks. Therefore, the growth is nominally faster now than 4 weeks ago. (Ignoring the "administrative re-classification" of data).

The present value is: D_c/I_c = 253/277 = 91% (including these 4 cases). This number has remained the same for the past 4 weeks, and arguably longer.

This thing is not contained.

My best guess (given that the data are all over the place and have been "administratively reclassified" to death), is that the e-folding time constant is about 40 days.

14 posted on 04/28/2005 2:05:11 PM PDT by 2ndreconmarine
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To: 2ndreconmarine

Scary.

We need quarantine anyone and everyone who's been to DRC/Angola now.


17 posted on 04/28/2005 2:25:17 PM PDT by tdewey10 (End elective abortion now.)
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