Dems, Kean jockey for Corzine's Senate seat

APRIL 21 - They've reached the quarter-pole in The Race For The Seat That Might Not Open. Federal fund-raising reports for the first three months of the year were released last week, triggering an uptick in chatter about the Democratic congressman jockeying to succeed Jon Corzine in the Senate.

To no one's surprise Bob Menendez, who entered the starting gate last December as the oddsmakers' favorite, reported the heftiest warchest, with just over $2.5 million on hand. Frank Pallone and Rob Andrews, generally considered Menendez's two chief House rivals for the seat, had about $1.2 million each.

Money matters in any political race, and the campaign for Corzine's seat is no exception. But the contest is unique because the seat will only open up if Corzine is elected governor this fall. Then, next January, Governor Corzine would appoint his successor -- either a "permanent" senator who would run for a full term in 2006 or a placeholder who would complete the term and clear the way for a crowded Democratic primary next spring.

Corzine jumped into the governor's race last December. Literally minutes later, Pallone announced that he planned to spend 2005 campaigning for Corzine -- and for Corzine's seat. Pallone's six fellow Democratic congressmen quietly let it be known they'd like to move to the Senate as well.

And yet it was Menendez, who failed in his effort last summer to force a special gubernatorial election that likely would have accelerated Corzine's drive to Drumthwacket, who was seen at the start of 2005 as the one most likely to join Frank Lautenberg in the Senate.

Menendez's status was owed to his money, his probable support from influential party chiefs, and the opportunity his selection would present to place a minority in a statewide post for the first time. Those around Corzine have strongly hinted Menendez would have been Corzine's pick for the Senate had there been a special election last year, and more than a few insiders speculated that Corzine had a wink and-nod agreement with Menendez heading into this year's race.

The talk that there's a deal has quieted since then, though Menendez is still considered by most to be the man to beat.

"I hear it a little," Tom O'Neil, a veteran Democratic strategist. "But I certainly think that even if there's no handshake or wink and everyone's sort of left to themselves, Menendez is still the favorite."

Needing a united Democratic front this year, Corzine has no incentive to tip anyone off until after the election. And a lot can and almost certainly will happen in the intervening months. Already this year, there have been several political developments that will factor into the fate of the Corzine seat:

* In late January, Andrews ended his flirtation with the gubernatorial race, dealing a severe blow to the political rationale for Acting Governor Richard Codey to run in the primary. Codey bowed out two weeks later.

* Lautenberg, whose seat expires in 2008, held a $1 million Newark fund-raiser, a strong signal that the octogenarian, who told friends that his first Senate retirement was the biggest mistake of his life, wants to seek a fifth term.

* Tom Kean Jr. launched a Senate fund-raising committee in March and quickly emerged as the likely GOP candidate in '06, whether Corzine wins this fall or not.

* Menendez, joined by Hall of Famer Willie Mays, hosted his annual Meadowlands fund-raiser in early April, raking in over $2 million in one night and attracting at least a third of the state's Democratic county chairs.

* Albio Sires announced last week that he'd step down as Assembly speaker at the end of the year and that he hoped to run for Menendez's 13th District House seat next year, provided Menendez moves up to the Senate.

The most significant may be Kean's decision to step forward. Republicans last won a New Jersey Senate race in 1972, but the son of the popular former governor, one Democratic insider noted, "is like the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus. People say he doesn't exist, but he does: He's a left of center Republican. He's right on almost all of the issues in this state."

The prospect of the state GOP uniting behind Kean and their national counterparts committing significant resources to the '06 race, some Democrats believe, will dissuade Corzine from picking a placeholder senator. An appointed senator running for a full-term would certainly be the preference of national Democrats, who don't want to expend resources in a reliable blue state.

An interim appointment, though, would free Corzine from picking favorites among the House members. It would also create chaos on multiple levels. Menendez, Andrews and Pallone would all likely abandon their House seats to run in the primary, creating three intra-party congressional fights in safe-Democratic districts. And with three congressmen entering, what's to prevent others— like Bill Pascrell, who's now exploring a bid -- from taking advantage of the splintered field and jumping in? And at that point, perhaps, a prominent state legislator or two might give it a shot.

If Corzine eschews the placeholder idea, Menendez, Andrews and Pallone are seen as the three most likely appointees, probably in that order. They bring the strongest attributes to the table— money, solid bases, articulateness.

Menendez would be difficult to say no to. He is the best fund-raiser in the delegation, so there'd be no questions about his ability to run an '06 race. Menendez's camp has said their goal is to raise $4.5 million this year.

More to the point, Menendez, who has a reputation for being aloof and thin-skinned, is a skilled power-broker, both in Washington, where's he's the number three Democrat in the House, and in New Jersey, where he's the de facto chief in one of the state's most Democratic counties. If they line up with anyone after November, the inner circle of state Democratic bosses would probably favor Menendez. Corzine, as an incoming governor, might not want to risk roiling them.

When Sires made his announcement last week, some saw it as a sign of just how imminent Menendez's ascension is considered among insiders. But Sires, an accidental speaker, may simply have been tired of the job and relieved to hand it off to the more eager Joe Roberts.

While Menendez's supporters talk more about him securing the appointment, Andrews's seem more focused on winning an open '06 primary.

In recent conversations with Democrats, Andrews has suggested he would like Corzine to choose a placeholder. The 47-year-old Andrews, those who have spoken with him say, sees '06 as his best— maybe only -- chance to move up from the House, since Lautenberg may run in '08 and Corzine, if he wins this year, would presumably stand for re-election in 2009. That would mean the next statewide opening for a Democratic probably wouldn't come until 2014.

Andrews's decision to stay out of the governor's race helped seal the nomination for Corzine. There are those who believe that before endorsing him Andrews may have asked Corzine to opt for the placeholder route.

Of course, Andrews hasn't given up on securing the appointment. Neither has Pallone. They can point to stronger general election credentials than Menendez, since their political bases include more independent and Republican areas than Menendez's. Among politicians, Andrews practically owns the television market in South Jersey, an area where statewide Democratic candidates have traditionally lagged. And the sixth district Pallone represents in Congress includes chunks of Monmouth and Ocean counties, two populous, GOP-friendly jurisdictions.

Those crossover credentials would make either man attractive to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which doles out national party money to state contests. Corzine is a former DSCC chair, and Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), the current chair, will undoubtedly weigh in when decision time comes. Whether his counsel will carry any weight, though, is anyone's guess.

"Frankly," Corzine, presumably joking, said last year, "sharing a media market with Chuck Schumer is like sharing a banana with a monkey. Take a little bite of it, and he will throw his own feces at you."

"the son of the popular former governor, one Democratic insider noted, "is like the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus. People say he doesn't exist, but he does: He's a left of center Republican. He's right on almost all of the issues in this state."

Little Tom Kean Jr., son of the Tom Kean Senior who invited Bill Clinton to speak not once, but TWICE to the student body at Drew University when he was Drew's President,the same man who headed the 9-11 Commission, and defended Jamie Gorelick and said "people" should "butt out", and who doesn't support the Second Amendment, and who supports "Reparations" to minorities, and who gave a much publicized speech about how our government "betrayed " us on 9-11 the week before the election.

It seems Tom Kean Jr. is following in his elitist limousine liberal father's footsteps philosophically, but his ambitions are much higher. This darling of the RINOs and Democratic left who claims the title of "Republican" apparently has higher aspirations than his father. He hopes to run for Senator after Corzine gets elected governor in New Jersey.

I hope the Republican rank and file are smart enough to vote against this creature when he runs. For the sake of the normal mahjority of us who live in the rest of the United States, lets hope Mr. Tom Kean Jr. never gets to Washington to help implement a liberal agenda. If he does, he will be right there along with Olympia Snowe, Lincoln Chaffee, John McCain and the other RINOs to afflict us with liberal thinking.

Joking? The only joke here is on me.

That's the first time I've ever heard a Dimocrat tell the truth. ;)

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.