CA: Uncertainty clouds governor's reform measures as deadline nears

SACRAMENTO (AP) - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger promised to wage a great battle this fall in a special election showdown with the unions, the special interests and - most of all - the Democrats.

But with his numbers falling in the polls and a key petition deadline approaching, there is growing uncertainty not only about which measures voters might face but even whether Schwarzenegger still wants the confrontation.

"This has been a catastrophe from beginning to end," said Raphael Sonenshein, a political scientist at California State University, Fullerton. "He's proposed a year of warfare with the Democrats on issues that unite them against him - this is not a great way to govern a blue state."

The governor had hoped to strong-arm the Legislature's Democratic majority into bargaining by raising enormous amounts of money and threatening to take his measures to the people. So far, Democrats have called Schwarzenegger's bluff and rebuffed his suggestions that they draw up compromise legislation.

At the height of his rhetoric, the governor vowed to raise $50 million and take his fight "right where all the evil is ... to fix the problem once and for all."

He offered four constitutional amendments to reshape the political and social landscape: cap state spending; restrict tenure for teachers; privatize public pensions; and redraw legislative and congressional districts.

Earlier this month, the governor withdrew his pension measure after discovering an embarrassing flaw in its language. Now, backers of the redistricting and tenure proposals have expressed recent doubts they can meet the deadline to turn in petitions by the end of this month.

When asked this week about his commitment to calling the election, Schwarzenegger struck a different tone, saying he was more open to negotiating with lawmakers.

"All of those things ought to be worked out in the state Capitol," he said. "I always said if we can't do it with the legislators, then we go directly to the people."

Schwarzenegger used the same strategy successfully last year to drive a diverse group to the bargaining table over the state's costly workers' compensation system. The governor raised big money to bankroll a petition drive in support of a ballot measure that he threatened to put before voters if a compromise could not be achieved.

Some GOP analysts said Schwarzenegger has shown great skill when his back is against the wall and they point out he still remains popular and persuasive.

"The governor's adversaries may be getting a little full of themselves," said Ken Khachigian, a former strategist for Ronald Reagan. "It's like in the market when a stock its overbought, I'd be looking for a correction."

The governor has raised only a portion of the $50 million he said he needs this year, but that's proved plenty to fuel his petition drive so far. The problem has been that his proposals have suffered from vigorous protest and criticism from such politically potent unions as nurses, firefighters and police - who are concerned about pensions and state spending limits.

Sensing the governor's weakness, Democrats and their supporters have virtually shutdown negotiations with Schwarzenegger in recent weeks because there's no political incentive in talking.

"There's a perception that the education coalition doesn't have to retreat one inch," said Kevin Gordon, a lobbyist for local school districts and part of the alliance opposing the governor's agenda. "There's no interest in compromise."

Meanwhile, activists from across the state have submitted 70 different initiative proposals that could theoretically appear on the ballot. With the brief signature gathering period, however, no more than a dozen appear to have serious backing.

Along with Schwarzenegger's proposals, some of the others likely to qualify are: limits on the use of union dues for political purposes; discounts for prescription drugs to low-income residents; a higher minimum wage; a bill of rights for used car buyers; and a requirement that parents be notified before a minor mother is allowed to get an abortion.

Even if those items get enough signatures to make the ballot, it's not certain that voters will go to the polls. It's up to Schwarzenegger to call the election, which will cost the cash-strapped state about $70 million, and even his allies have their doubts.

"I hope we have a special election - but it's certainly not clear," said Sen. John Campbell, R-Irvine.

Here's some top money givers. Do you think all these financial firms will want a refund on the Pension reform?

CITIZENS TO SAVE CALIFORNIA, A COALITION OF BUSINESS & TAXPAYER ORGANIZATIONS
TO REFORM CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS

NAME OF CONTRIBUTOR	CITY	STATE/ZIP	EMPLOYER	OCCUPATION	AMOUNT	TRANS. DATE
A. Jerrold Perenchio	Los Angeles	CA / 90067	Chartwell Partners, LLC	Businessman	$1,500,000.00	03/02/05
John A. Gunn	Palo Alto	CA / 94301	Dodge & Cox	President & CEO	$500,000.00	03/14/05
Security National Servicing Corporation	Eureka	CA / 95655			$250,000.00	03/11/05
William Lyon Homes, Inc.	Newport Beach	CA / 92660			$250,000.00	03/23/05
Carl H. Lindner	Cincinnati	OH / 45243	American Financial Group	Chairman Of The Board	$200,000.00	03/04/05
Capital Pacific Holdings, Inc.	Newport Beach	CA / 92660			$150,000.00	03/25/05
LKDTrust	Foothill Ranch	CA / 92010	American Sterling Corporation	Lawrence K. Doyle, Foundation Chairman/CEO	$130,000.00	03/07/05
American Sterling Corporation	Foothill Ranch	CA / 92610			$120,000.00	03/07/05
Ameriquest Capital Corporation	Orange	CA / 92868			$100,000.00	03/24/05
California Retailers Association Issues Cte.	Sacramento	CA / 95814			$100,000.00	03/31/05
Cendant Corporation	Parsippany	NJ / 07054			$100,000.00	04/20/05
Citigroup, Inc.	Washington	DC / 20004			$100,000.00	04/11/05
Entrepreneurial Capital Corporation	Newport Beach	CA / 92660			$100,000.00	04/12/05
Henry Segerstrom Trust	Newport Beach	CA / 92661	C.J. Segerstrom & Sons	Henry Segerstrom/Partner	$100,000.00	03/18/05
Target Corporation	Minneapolis	MN / 55403			$100,000.00	03/11/05
The New Majority Pac	Mill Valley	CA / 94941			$95,000.00	03/31/05
Barratt American Inc.	Carlsbad	CA / 92008			$50,000.00	04/10/05
Bruce Taylor	Salinas	CA / 93902	Taylor Farms California	Chairman & CEO	$50,000.00	03/25/05
California Assoc. Of Health Underwriters Pac	Fresno	CA / 93726			$50,000.00	03/11/05
Chevrontexaco	San Ramon	CA / 94583			$50,000.00	04/08/05
Douglas E. Barnhart, Inc.	San Diego	CA / 92127			$50,000.00	03/11/05
Empire Partners, Inc.	Ontario	CA / 91764			$50,000.00	04/01/05
Fariborz Maseeh	Newport Beach	CA / 92660	Picoco, LLC	Founder & Managing Principal	$50,000.00	03/29/05
Kelly Burt	San Diego	CA / 92128	Price Self Storage	Chairman	$50,000.00	04/07/05
Malin Burnham	San Diego	CA / 92112	Burnham Real Estate	Chairman	$50,000.00	03/02/05
Michael K. Hayde	Irvine	CA / 92614	Western National Group	President	$50,000.00	03/07/05
S.R. Bray Corporation/Dba Power Plus!	Anaheim	CA / 92806			$50,000.00	03/23/05
T. Gary Rogers	Oakland	CA / 94611	Dryers Grand Ice Cream	CEO & Chairman	$50,000.00	03/25/05
William Wilson III	Hillsborough	CA / 94010	William Wilson III Management Co.	Executive	$50,000.00	03/07/05

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