Posted on 04/21/2005 10:47:03 AM PDT by quidnunc
Let’s start with what just about everyone already knows — Hillary Clinton is running for the 2008 Democratic nomination and will be the odds-on favorite to win it.
From this admittedly distant vantage point, there are only three serious alternatives on the Democratic side, none of which should present her with much difficulty.
The first two, John Kerry and Al Gore, are unlikely because they are retreads. Not since the Democrats re-nominated Adlai Stevenson in 1956 has either of our major parties gone back to the same dry well the next time around, a consideration which works against Kerry.
In a similar sense, not since the Republicans chose Richard Nixon in 1968 has either party nominated someone who had lost eight years earlier, a consideration which works against Gore.
Parties tend to be especially averse to previous losers when their losses were, as for Gore and Kerry, perceived as largely self-inflicted.
Gore ran a campaign sufficiently erratic in 2000, despite the kind of peace and prosperity thought to benefit incumbents, that he lost the White House by a split decision in the Supreme Court. Kerry performed even more dismally in 2004, blowing Gore’s popular-vote margin despite running against an incumbent presiding over both a tepid economy and an unpopular war.
In other words, it is unlikely that a party will turn to candidates who previously demonstrated political incompetence in the face of less than overwhelming opposition so long as there are other options.
Those other options include Kerry’s running mate, John Edwards, who now has the kind of seasoning the lack of which made him suspect in the eyes of many voters six months ago. As demonstrated on the campaign trail and in his VP debate performances, Edwards will make a formidable opponent. He might be a rich, smarmy trial lawyer peddling a phony "two nations" populism, but he also has a certain amount of charisma, sufficient name recognition and plenty of spare time to raise money now that he no longer has to show up for those pesky Senate votes.
But the crucial variable influencing nomination struggles in cases lacking either an incumbent or the implosion of a front-runner (see Howard Dean last year) is the level of enthusiasm that can be generated among party activists in places like Manchester, N. H., and Des Moines, Iowa. And there is, quite simply, no other Democrat who has comparable star power in such precincts as Hillary.
Like Kerry in 2004, Hillary will seek to moderate her image and thereby convince the naïve and gullible among us that she isn’t simply a warmed-over counterculture leftist; unlike Kerry, she probably has the political savvy to pull it off.
That effort at ideological makeover will be aided by a willingness on the part of activist Democrats to muzzle their loonier elements for the sake of regaining the White House after eight years of George W. Bush, much as Democrats were willing to do when Hillary’s husband sought the nomination after 12 frustrating years of Ronald Reagan and Bush’s father.
Having firmly established herself as the leftist ideological core of the Clinton administration, Hillary will have nothing to prove to the kind of ideologues who troop through the snow to the polls in early Democratic primaries. That ideological confidence also will allow a calculated move to the center without having to worry about losing support within the party’s base. When Hillary begins to make conservative-sounding noises, as she already is on topics like religious faith and abortion, party activists will recognize it for what it is: merely a tactical appeal to the knuckle-draggers in Red America designed to enhance her electability.
But her biggest asset will be found in an overwhelmingly liberal media, which recognizes a great story when they see it and will be willing to assist her transformation from fire-breathing leftist to moderate because of shared cultural and political values. Much like there was a "new" Nixon in 1968, we will be presented with a "new" Hillary in 2008, one that appears more statesmanlike, pragmatic and in tune with the heartland values she inwardly despises. Expect Hillary’s "Sista Souljah" moment to come early and be repeated often.
None of which means, of course, that she is likely to win in November, particularly if the Republicans do the smart thing and nominate the obvious Hillary antidote — Condoleezza Rice.
Free-lance columnist Bradley R. Gitz teaches politics at Lyon College at Batesville.
"...the base won't come out."
I believe you are absolutely right. Thye Dems are on the attack and the Republicans are crouched in their foxholes waiting to be overrun.
Nader got enough to keep Gore out of the White House but Perot got enough to elect Clinton with less than 50% if the vote. It can happen again if Republicans are stupid enough to surrender the White House to another Clinton over a single issue.
2000 and 2004 were mere warm-ups, folks!
eeewww
"men will vote for Hillary because she is percieved as a huge bitch"
..."perceived?"
I meant will not vote for. YEah, the percieved part was an attempt to be somewhat civil. You can ommit that part if you like.
Richard "Dick" (Dick) Nixon. (Don't quibble with the four year hiatus).
Hey, I'm just happy to see an actual entire article to read....
That's only because the Ardemgaz is behind a subscription firewall.
Gitz's work is acceptable, but if I never heared the term "blovating" again I'd be quite pleased.
I know. It is downright funny at times. I really liked your head em off at the pass tact.
When did you learn to read. I bet slip reads it to you!
Here we go again. Those who own and operate the Dem/GOP thing are setting Americans up for another insult an order of magnatude greater than the last few record breakers. Perhaps this insult will drop voter turn-out to single digit percentages as the more rational people will opt out of the farce.
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