Ratzinger is making the hard sell. He'll be the early leading vote-getter but if he's not over 51% of the vote in the first three, four ballots, this support will wane.
I think South/Latin America is getting this one.
I strongly doubt that. He never wanted to go to the Vatican. He is a philosopher and planned to write. It was JPII who pleaded for his assistance.
My mother and I were having this discussion this weekend. She (still a practicing Catholic) told me to watch Ratzinger, and I reminded her of the old saw, "He who enters the conclave a Pope, comes out a Cardinal."
I think she's amazed that twenty years after leaving the church, I still follow this stuff!