Also, the "West River" part of North Dakota (which is the GOP stronghold in SD) is much smaller in geographical area and has no large city playing a role similar to what Rapid City does for SD. The population is even more heavily weighted toward the Minnesota border than is South Dakota's.
The North Dakota Republican Party has been collosally incompetent in grooming and electing candidates to the Senate. Dorgan and Conrad will be defeated when pigs fly. The Dems will run Pomeroy, who runs for the House seat virtually unchallenged every time, when Dorgan finally retires, and they will keep that seat. Count ND with two Dem Senators for a long time to come, barring an epiphany and a spine transplant on the part of the state GOP leaders.
I won't dispute your analysis about North Dakota, but Bush did win by over 20 points, and the people there voted to ban gay marriage and domestic partnerships by something like 73-27 last Nov.
But I do agree about the state GOP there when it comes to running for federal office.
What about Hoeven? Has he been a good governor? Is he a solid conservative? Would he have a good chance against Kent Conrad?