[datura]

If it follows the growth projection curve, there will be nearly 6 million cases by 6/30/05. Of which, 95% + will die. Would that then qualify as "serious"????

[politicket]

Ping for a check back on 6/30/05.

If there are even tens of thousands of cases then, yes, I will call it extremely serious. But we'll see how close they are to "6 million" by then...

[2ndreconmarine]

If it follows the growth projection curve, there will be nearly 6 million cases by 6/30/05

In all fairness, that was from my original calculations which had an e-folding time of 7 days. The revised calculation, based on more recent data, show an e-folding time of 9 days. It is a bit slower. The graphs show the projected results. We will see if the next set of data confirm this exponential growth rate (see my link above in post 30).

Also, these projections ASSUME that the growth rate will continue at the same rate it has for the past 3.5 months. We certainly don't know that. There may be saturation mechanisms that would slow it down or stop it.