You can't judge China per capita. You have to judge it in total. They now have the six largest economy in the world, having zoomed by Italy. They are the second (or third) largest buyer of U.S. debt, up there with England and Japan. And, the amount of stuff they export to the U.S. is an amount larger than many nation's economies.
>recent economic gains are two of the per capita poorest >countries in the world.
Yes but thats today. They are both on a high growth path and will remain that way for generations to come. They are investing large amounts in education and infrastructure , the lack of which kept them poor.
"They both have a long history of belligerence towards each other."
Same was said about japan and the US once upon a time.
"Meanwhile, the US hums along at +/- 4% GDP growth per year, easily outstripping any economy in the world."
Actually thats only because of massive fiscal deficit coupled with record low interest rates which have resulted in currency depreciation. So actually the purchasing power of the avg american has gone down and not up.
"Asian century? Don't think so. At best they both could possibly pull themselves out of dire poverty and develop a respectable middle class. At best."
I dont think you realize that china is TODAY the biggest cell phone market on the planet. These people already are a middle class and they are working towards getting even better. India started embracing capitalism 15years after china and so will take more time to catch up but it has other advantages such as an english language education system. Even if we concede that these folks will only be middle class that still means with 4 times the population of the US their GDP will be larger than the US.
Also the figures you quote are based on nominal estimates and not PPP figures. A dentist in India may make a quarter of what his counterpart in the US makes but that does not make his service any less valuable. US $ will depreciate V/s Asian currencies in the future and thus this disparity will be resolved. And so the numbers will look more like PPP numbers. Then the gap between the US and these countries will not be so big.
But I dont understand why this narrowing of the economic gap is seen as a threat. Shouldnt it be seen in a positive light where poverty is eliminated and also prosperity is spread more evenly around the world and not just a preserve of the West? At least in Indias case we have a open society similar to the western world and shares the same values.
I was very pleased to read your posting about China and India. I was finally able to read a sharp-witted, cogent, and concise analysis of the China/India question by someone who (like me) obviously has a firm grasp of the dynamics of the situtation. And is willing to put the thing in stark terms that any intelligent person is sure to understand. Your assessment is quite the counterpoint to all of the China-India-superpowers-soon-to-overtake-the-US blather we've been seeing lately. Good-O!