Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237 - 11 in Luanda

Recombinomics ^ | April 12, 2005 | Recombinomics Commentary

[Covenantor]

Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237 - 11 in Luanda

Recombinomics Commentary

April 12, 2005

>> The health ministry and WHO said in a statement that the greatest number of deaths -- 190 -- was recorded in the northern Uige province, the epicenter of the epidemic that was first detected in October.

A total of 202 cases have been detected in Uige, it said.

The highest number of deaths after Uige was in the Kwanza Sul province with six fatalities and six cases, followed by five deaths and 11 cases in Luanda, five deaths and six cases in Zaire, two deaths and four cases in Mananje, and one death and one case each in the provinces of Cabinda and Kwanza Norte.

Meanwhile, health ministry spokesman Alberto Carlos told reporters that six other bodies had been found in a hospital morgue in Uige and that laboratory tests proved that they had succumbed to the virus.

He underlined that these deaths did not figure in the toll released Tuesday, without giving a reason. <<

The latest update indicated that the recorded cases had grown to 231 (excluding the six bodies in the Uige morgue). Uige has 190, but now Luanda has the second highest number of cases with 11. These two provinces also have the largest numbers of recorded patients that are still alive, with 12 in Uige and 6 in Luanda. The only other provinces with recorded patients who have not yet died are Mananje with 2 and Zaire with 1. The other 3 provinces have no recorded survivors.

These latest figures for Luanda match the 5 deaths described in media reports. The data suggests that the two recent cases in Cacuaco described in media reports have either not died, or not been recorded. The same situation would apply to the Portuguese national. The latest update indicates that there are three additional cases in Luanda which have not been described in media reports.

This added detail focuses attention on Uige and Luanda, but the number of unreported cases in these two areas is still unknown, which is also true for the other provinces.

The 237 cases suggest that the number of recorded cases will soon exceed the record number of 280 deaths in the 1976 Ebola outbreak in Zaire. There are still no recent reports of any of the Marburg cases in Angola being discharged.

[Covenantor]

more data coming in.

[Covenantor]

ping

[Dog Gone]

Recombinomics tends to be on the overly pessimistic side with their commentary, but they're pretty good with their factual reporting. If there are 11 deaths in Luanda now, that is big increase over yesterday's figures, and it is not a good sign.

We'll see if these numbers are confirmed in the mainstream press (usually a day behind).

[2ndreconmarine]

Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237

This is following the growth curve exactly.

9 day efolding time ==> 11% per day.

Previous day = 213 cases

213 * 1.11 = 236

[rdl6989]

Here is a link to CDC questions and answers regarding Marburg.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpages/dispages/marburg/qa.htm

[FrogMom]

How does that tie into the previous graph?

[united1000]

It is a bit confusing to me but I read it as 11 total cases in Luanda. Six still alive and 5 dead.??? It did say this:

These latest figures for Luanda match the 5 deaths described in media reports

Is is 11 dead or 11 total?????

[armymarinemom]

So goes any hope that this is slowing down.

[2ndreconmarine]

How does that tie into the previous graph?

It ties in exactly; that was my point. The previous graph plotted two plots: 1) the raw data and 2) an exponential fit with a time constant (exponential time constant or e-folding time) of 9 days. The two curves (as you may recall) were right on top of each other.

This next day's data fit right on top of the curve.

However, what will really be important is whether the curve continues. If we hit 400 cases by Friday, then it is clear that the growth curve is robust.

[united1000]

I went back and reread it. Yes it's a total of 11 cases in Luanda with 4 dead.

The highest number of deaths after Uige was in the Kwanza Sul province with six fatalities and six cases, followed by five deaths and 11 cases in Luanda, five deaths and six cases in Zaire, two deaths and four cases in Mananje, and one death and one case each in the provinces of Cabinda and Kwanza Norte.

[Boundless]

The only page the CDC has updated since last week is:
Marburg Hemorrhagic Fever
Fact Sheet for the Business Sector
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpages/dispages/marburg/business.htm

Although I only gave it a quick study, the only thing "new"
is that they omit the boilerplate 23-25% fatality rate.
Everything else is still suggestive that this is the
familiar Marburg of prior outbreaks (which it is likely not).

The following also unchanged and hardly requires comment:
"No U.S. travel restrictions to the affected
area are recommended at this time."

[Covenantor]

For Luanda I read it as:

11 cases

5 deaths

[Fitzcarraldo]

ping

[ordinaryguy]

At this point, they are watching another 360 possible cases.

[Mother Abigail]

"However, what will really be important is whether the curve continues. If we hit 400 cases by Friday, then it is clear that the growth curve is robust."


The highly technical term we use to describe the situation you refer to above is:

The bug is out of the box...

Let us all pray that there is still time to contain this killer.

MA

[Boundless]

> ... they are watching another 360 possible cases.

That they know of.

Where does that figure come from, by the way.

[Covenantor]

Here's the plot by 2ndreconmarine

[united1000]

Yes thanks, I agree with you. I meant to put five and wrote four.. I really do know that 6 and 5 = 11 :)

[Dog Gone]

I dunno. The last story I read about this in Luanda had 3 dead (all from Uige who came to Luanda hospitals) and two under observation.

No matter how I read it now, it's gotten worse. I'm no longer focusing on the numbers, only the trends, because I don't trust the numbers.