Since our rules of engagement here are the same as the "Price is Right" I win because I didn't go over the estimated win in popular vote percentage or electoral votes. :)
But on a serious note, your estimate was 100 or more electoral votes when in fact the victory was only 34 and the popular vote was a difference of less than 2.5%. And while I did say Kerry could win, I did predict a squeaker either way. It virtually became that.
Factor that the President had no primary challenger to batter him ala Dole in 96 and the President himself in 2000 (although Dole was bloodied much more than the President was in 2000), there were signs of an economy on the mend, the war while prolonged had been showing signs of progress and the extremely generous bounce of the convention, you're right, it should have been in excess of 100 electoral votes and a 7-10 point victory.
In addition, I wrote those comments in March, several month before the election. For someone who is just an armchair watcher, I got close. And factor that I don't have the resources, polling, internal memo access, access to strategy makers and other tools that you have.
While the President single handedly breathed new life into a Kerry Campaign that was down to it's last ember until after the first debate, in March of 2004 no one would have guessed the genius of the Swift Boats or the ability to energize the evangelicals like was done in 2004. The evangelical movement was almost to the point of annointing the President the next coming of Christ. It was frankly amazing the how the message was shaped and presented. Thankfully it worked, but how that was done was a masterpiece of unbelieveable public relations. There were some disappointments over the 4 years that evangelicals suffered between 2001 and 2004, yet getting all those evangelical voices singing off the same page and almost verbatim pitches was nothing less than amazing.
That's some spin you got there.