Korean Analysis

Janes Defence Weekly ^ | April 2005 | Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment

[Wiseghy]

Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment - South Korea

South Korea's greatest security concern is its relations with its northern neighbour. Although the risk of renewed war appears to have been significantly reduced as a result of the June 2000 Pyongyang summit between the leaders of both countries, the deterioration in relations between Washington and Pyongyang that began soon after George W Bush took office in February 2001 has proven to be a significant blow to South Korean efforts to improve relations with the DPRK. Whether the current North Korean regime maintains its grip on power or not, Seoul is faced with the need to fund investment and reform or, in a worst case scenario, to finance the wholesale reconstruction of the DPRK in the event of a catastrophic collapse or precipitate reunification of the peninsula.

Relations with the US The US-ROK relationship has come under increasing strain since the inauguration of George W Bush in February 2001. While the ROK has patiently pursued its 'sunshine' policy of engagement with the DPRK, the Bush administration has shown a marked scepticism to the idea that North Korea can be reformed, and has adopted a de facto policy of containment, isolation and undermining of the Kim Jong Il regime. Although Seoul has long prioritised relations with the US, as the nuclear standoff has developed, particularly after the DPRK's 10 February 2005 declaration, inter-Korean relations have continued to develop, and Seoul has made it clear that the DPRK's claimed nuclear status will not affect levels of economic cooperation. This has created the potential for a serious break with Washington.

Regional Competition An upsurge in regional competition for political and military dominance is a distinct cause of alarm for South Korea. South Korea currently enjoys closer relations with China, Japan and Russia than at any time during the country's history. However, these powers pose security concerns for Seoul. There are several sources of instability in Northeast Asia in the form of growing Chinese-Japanese rivalry, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, unresolved disputes over territory and marine resources, heightened competition for energy resources and ethnic and social unrest. Any of these issues could develop into open conflict in the absence of an effective institutionalised regional forum or a multilateral security mechanism to manage them. By far the most serious issue facing the region, however, is the threat of a nuclear arms race that could be provoked by North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

[Wiseghy]

Jane's seems to be kinda blaming Bush (whatta shock!). However, the bottom line is that China's intransigence, and inaction on North Korea is likely to trigger an Asian nuclear crisis. South Korea's efforts to kiss up to Kim Il are, of course, only making things worse.

[marron]

the deterioration in relations between Washington and Pyongyang that began soon after George W Bush took office

Only the most oblique reference to the fact that Bush caught NK lying about its nuclear weapons program, and had been for 8 years while accepting annual payments for not doing what they had never stopped doing. Bush is guilty of catching them and cutting off payments. He is further guilty of refusing to talk to them about it, insisting that China and RoK deal with it.

Somehow all that makes Bush the bad guy, in Janes world.

[Dimez Apart]

The sooner S. Korea says 'Hell no, Free elections or nothing' the better. The North will limp on to be a continues menace hovering over Seoul until that day. Unless the people of N. Korea see the South fighting for them, they can't be expected to fight for themselves at such risk.