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Cardinal Husar had been hinting as much. It would drive the Chinese Communists insane among others.

But if they are genuinely interested in continuing to address the issues with Islam and the questions of trying to heal the breach with the Orthodox (and even addressing the bringing home of parts of the Anglican Communion) then Cardinal Arinze is the clearly the best candidate. With Anglican Archbishop Akinola of Nigeria the de facto head of conservative Anglicans worldwide it could be an awesome opportunity. Also, Cardinal Arinze has very good relationships with a number of Eastern Orthodox hierarchs and theologians.

If their concern is geopolitical, they will not elect an Italian or a Latin American if they have a Russian in mind (or a Ukrainian cardinal for that matter).

If they think bio-ethical concerns are most important, they will turn to Cardinal Scola and also embrace the return to an Italian.

My half-penny's worth of conjecture...