I always wondered the same thing; why everyone made a big deal about JPII being the "first non-Italian pope" for some 400 years, as if the Italians had a RIGHT to be pope.
I suppose the only thing I can think of is that the Italians are possessive of the role because the pope would have to live in Italy and be someone who knew and understood the culture and language of the country pretty well. Although IMHO, I don't think that should be the only reason to go with an Italian. After all, the pope is pope of the UNIVERSAL Church, not just Italy.
I would LOVE Arinze to get the job, however i think the fact that he's considered a "favourite" jinxes him. In the past elections, NONE of the so-called "favourites" got the job. It was always someone no-one expected.
Arinze is a favorite of conservatives. That might be enough to doom him. He is not a fav of those that are lib, and those that believe in Liberation Theology (Marxism with a collar).
The basic thought is the pope is also the Bishop of Rome so obviously there is some sentiment that he be Italian. I think there is probably only a 1 in 4 chance that the next pope is Italian. I believe the number of Italian cardinals eligible to vote is the smallest number ever. I would be willing to bet the next next pope is at least 70 years old. No more "young" (if being in your sixties is young!) popes for awhile.