Guessing Game Begins on Pope's Successor

VATICAN CITY - Roman Catholics and others began to speak out Sunday about their hopes — and expectations — for a new pope, as the intense guessing game began over who would succeed John Paul II in leading the Church.

Only one thing is certain: The cardinals must decide whether to follow John Paul II with another non-Italian or hand the papacy back to its traditional caretakers.

Cardinal Bernard Panafieu, one of five French prelates with a papal vote, said Sunday he was hoping for someone "who dynamizes the people — God's people — as John Paul II did. At the same time, a man who has an international sense, of the opening of Catholicism to the world. An open man and at the same time, a man faithful to the great traditions of the Church."

The Polish-born John Paul was the first non-Italian pope in 455 years and brought a new vitality to the Vatican, challenging parochial attitudes throughout the church. One view — echoed from outside Roman Catholicism by Anglican Archbishop Desmond Tutu — holds that the papal electors will want to maintain the spirit by recognizing the Roman Catholic influence outside Europe in Latin America and Africa.

"We hope that perhaps the cardinals when they meet will follow the first non-Italian pope by electing the first African pope," Tutu said Sunday from Cape Town, South Africa.

Another theory suggests that the Italians will press to reclaim the papacy after John Paul's 26-year reign — the third-longest in history.

There is no clear favorite when the 117 cardinals begin their secret conclave later this month.

But names often mentioned as "papabile" — the Italian word for possible papal candidates — include Cardinal Francis Arinze, a Vatican-based Nigerian, and Brazilian Cardinal Claudio Hummes.

Arinze, 72, converted to Roman Catholicism as a child and shares some of John Paul's conservative views on contraception and family issues. But he brings a unique element: representing a nation shared between Muslims and Christians at the time when interfaith relations assume growing urgency. If elected, he would be the first black pope of modern times.

Hummes, 70, is archbishop of Sao Paolo, Brazil, and urges more attention to fighting poverty and the effects of a globalized economies. His supporters note that Brazil's role as a Latin American political and economic heavyweight could help the Vatican counter the popularity of emerging evangelical churches in the region.

Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodiguez Maradiaga of Honduras, the 62-year-old archbishop of Tegucigalpa, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. But he could be too much of a break for Vatican conservatives. He has studied clinical psychology and has a dynamic, outspoken style.

Among Italians, Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, the archbishop of Milan, is a moderate with natural pastoral abilities and an easy style that appeals to the young. But Tettamanzi, 71, is not considered widely traveled and some critics believe he could impose too strong an Italian outlook.

Other Italians widely mentioned as possible candidates include: Cardinal Angelo Scola of Venice, 63, who is relatively young and brings a cosmopolitan flair from his city, a historic cultural crossroads; and Giovanni Battista Re, 71, who has served as president of the Vatican commission for Latin America since 2001.

Within Europe, several cardinals are seen as possible rising stars, potentially able to win support in the way Karol Wojtyla, then archbishop of Krakow, Poland, did in the 1978 conclave that elevated him to pope. They include: Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn, the 69-year-old archbishop of Vienna, Austria, who is multilingual and has diplomatic flair, and Belgian Cardinal Godfried Danneels, 71, who is well known in political and diplomatic circles.

Cardinal Philippe Barbarin, another French elector, said Sunday he hoped for a powerful figure to follow John Paul.

"When you see his face, and when you hear him speak, you should have the impression like that made by the arrival of John Paul II in October 1978: 'Wow, here you can see Christ come among us,'" Barbarin said in an interview with radio network France Inter.

Europe has the biggest bloc with 58 papal electors — cardinals under 80 years old. Italy alone has 20.

Latin America has 21 and Africa brings 11. The United States also has 11 cardinals and could sway the voting if they remain united. An American pope, however, is considered a virtual impossibility because of the Vatican would avoid any such a deep and complicated association with the world's sole superpower.

One only has to recall that after two days and eight rounds of voting 26 years ago, the name of Karol Wojtyla — never mentioned as a serious candidate — was announced to the crowd in St. Peter's Square. Many there were baffled.

The basic thought is the pope is also the Bishop of Rome so obviously there is some sentiment that he be Italian. I think there is probably only a 1 in 4 chance that the next pope is Italian. I believe the number of Italian cardinals eligible to vote is the smallest number ever. I would be willing to bet the next next pope is at least 70 years old. No more "young" (if being in your sixties is young!) popes for awhile.

Focusing on skin color and geography as a way to select a church leader is utterly mindless and absurd.

How would the world have been different if another Italian were selected in 1978? Maybe communism would have fallen anyway, but I doubt it.

Africa is about to be eaten up by AIDS, perhaps a pope from there with conservative moral views would turn that around. It's worth a try.

By the way, it will be quite interesting watching the first papal election since the invention of 24 hour news channels, and the Internet.

Why do the Italians think that the Papacy is their's?

Well the Pope is *Bishop of Rome* and something like 95% of the 264 Popes in history have been, well, Italians - including every single one for the 455 years before John Paul II.

But I like Arinze a lot as well.

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