A Fierce Debate on Atom Bombs From Cold War

NY Times ^ | April 3, 2005 | WILLIAM J. BROAD

[roaddog727]

Better to have the most current technology and assure that when the need does arise, you can deliver what you intend to deliver.

Just imagine if we got into a big shootin' war and some of these warheads were duds due to age. Now, let's further suppose that the duds were targeting the "threat's" weapons and C2 systems.

No earth-shattering Kaboom. merely a chunk of junk falling from the sky. That's the ultimate getting caught with your pants down.

Not for me.

There's the quick and the dead. I have no desire to be of the latter ilk.

[Light Speed]

Article excerpts:

Russia is offering the Kondor-E satellite to any foreign buyer. The Kondor satellite is designed specifically to guide high-speed supersonic cruise missiles with space targeting sensors. China has orbited military targeting satellites and is helping North Korea, Pakistan and Iran to develop their own military targeting satellites or space launch programs.

"China is developing three new mobile, solid-fueled space launch vehicles especially for launching micro and nano-sats. The first to be fully tested in 2003 was the KT-1, a four-stage rocket based on the DF-21 MRBM (Medium Range Ballistic Missile). The KT-2 will be based on the DF-31 ICBM and the KT-2A, on the DF-31A ICBM (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile). The latter two will target geosynchronous and polar orbits, where many sensitive U.S. military satellites reside," noted Fisher.

more here:
China launches Nano Satellites

L.S. coments:

China has been on a world wide resource spending spree in the past years.
Last year...China purchased over 60% of the worlds critical raw material resources...and formed resources...like steel and concrete.

China has set about expanding its strategic oil/gas reserve supply.
The dial on world raw material production just went up.....this is why the price of oil is likely to remain high.
Fiscally...is prudent to aquire resources which require shipping transit while oil prices are lower.
China has also been on a world business purchase spree.
Buying ,mines...oil concessions...port authorities...industrial fabrication technology firms.
China is Germany's new money friend...buying German machine tooling firms.....and buying into other existing German tech firms.

China is also making a play fiscally for resources in South America.
Overall, Chinese companies had invested US$33 billion in 7,470 companies in more than 160 countries and territories by the end of 2003, according to the Ministry of Commerce. In 2003 alone, direct overseas investment by manufacturers and other non-financial companies totaled US$2.8 billion. That figure is dwarfed by foreign investment in China, expected to hit a record US$60 billion this year.

In 2003....U.S. steel prices jumped 30% in 2 months.
Rebar used to support concrete now costs $800 a ton, compared with $425 a year ago.[2004 quote]

Article excerpt:

How Chinese Economic Growth is Affecting World Mineral Markets

USGS analysis indicates that China’s rising consumption of mineral commodities has resulted in higher prices and lower stocks of mineral commodities such as aluminum, copper, gold, iron ore, nickel, platinum-group metals, and tin. Another result has been high levels of use of world production capacity for many commodities. This has left little excess capacity to handle supply disruptions. In some cases, shortages of mineral commodities have caused manufacturers to limit their production of goods. World demand for iron ore, iron and steel scrap, blast furnace coke and steel has been especially strong. This contrasts strongly with the situation of 2001 when analysts argued that 10 to 20 percent of steel capacity was unneeded. As with other mineral commodities, most of the increase in steel demand has come from China. The USGS has received numerous contacts recently from companies trying to find sources of iron ore and steel, including those used in the manufacture of automobile axles and in defense applications.

China is the leading producer of a number of minerals including aluminum, antimony, cement, fluorspar, coking coal, magnesium, rare earths, steel, tin, tungsten, and zinc. However, because of the demands of its economy, Chinese exports of mineral commodities such as rare-earth elements, silver, tin, and tungsten, are declining. China controls exports of some mineral commodities such as antimony, coking coal, and tungsten by requiring an export permit. China also maintains duties on exports of some mineral commodities. China is a significant source for a number of mineral commodities for which the United States is dependent upon imports for most of its supply. These include antimony (79 percent of imports), barite (90 percent), fluorspar (65 percent), indium (49 percent), magnesium compounds (68 percent), rare earths (67 percent), tungsten (47 percent), and yttrium (88 percent). These mineral commodities have important uses in applications such as batteries, ceramics, electronic equipment, flame resistant materials, metallurgical processing, and petroleum drilling.

In order to meet the needs of its rapidly growing economy, China has had to increase both its production and imports of minerals commodities. China’s large aluminum, copper, and steel industries are dependent upon imports of raw materials. As a result, China has made significant foreign investment in bauxite and alumina, copper, iron ore, and nickel production facilities. Last fall, state-owned China Minmetals Corporation entered into discussions to purchase the Canadian company Noranda, Inc. Although those negotiations have not resulted in an agreement to date, they are indicative of interest by China in owning sources of the mineral commodities that its industries rely upon. ****************************************************

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Paul Ross]

Once ICBM's ignited, I believe our satellites are sensitive enought to detect the continuous rocket flare as the rocket thrusts upward. The cold-launch method, which the Soviets used...and still use...for all their giant SS-18's was already dealt with by the NSA's National Strategic Reconnaissance Office.

A side note on the buckshot weapon. Ideally, it needs to be used in low orbits so that normal re-entry would "clean-up" the mess over the period of weeks to allow return to space...and it further needs to be PRECEDED by whatever first strike is going to be launched. Why? Sufficiently robust BB deployment could actually THWART ICBM's RV's from reliably avoiding BB interception...and destruction themselves. The "cloud" of BB's would prevent space access of all forms.

The buckshot weapon needs to be used in conjunction with a grand master plan for preemption and space-denial. Indiscriminate use would backfire on any one using it...blowing their own satellites too...

That is not to say that the Chinese would not do it. They should be told in no uncertain terms that launches of devices that could be such weapons will be presumed if their satellites approach our geosynchronous and polar satellites...and sudden 'coincidental' loss of our assets would be presumed to be an act presaging nuclear war.