[Wallace T.]

Don't bet on the percentages of the disaffected being as low as you think. Remember the 2000 election, where 3-4 million evangelicals sat out the election, not because of dislike of George W. Bush, but in reaction to the failure of the Gingrich "revolution" of 1994 to accomplish much in the way of their social agenda and disdain for the lukewarm attitude of Bob Dole and George H.W. Bush on pro-life issues. The conservative evangelicals have long memories, as per their unfairly projecting their disappointment over 1990s Republicans on the younger Bush. Yes, they may be "cutting off their nose to spite their face," but it may happen. This is a particularly dangerous possibility, as it appears Terri Schiavo will be treated as a martyr.

[adx]

Yes, they may be "cutting off their nose to spite their face," but it may happen. This is a particularly dangerous possibility, as it appears Terri Schiavo will be treated as a martyr.

Depends primarily on what happens with judicial appointments and the whole "nuclear option". The Senate Republicans have to sh*t or get off the pot by the '08 election cycle at the very latest. If they don't, especially when they have the majority, the evangelicals may well believe, and with some justification, that they were strung along by the GOP.