The Chinese leadership is, at least, rational. They don't really have a desire to start a nuclear war over Taiwan. They could always miscalculate, though.
That being said, if the country goes to hell in a handbag, God only knows which regional warlord(s) ends up with nukes under their control and who they decide to aim them at.
I'm pretty pessimistic. Barring some sort of democratic revolution in China (unlikely) a confrontation between us and them is inevitable in the next decade or so.
Under the pressure of a civil war, rationality may fade.