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Is America Too Poor To Remain A Military Superpower ?
AmericanEconomicAlert.org ^ | Wednesday, March 30, 2005 | William R. Hawkins

Posted on 03/31/2005 12:01:29 PM PST by Willie Green

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.

In response to Congressional concern that the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding schedule is inadequate to sustain a fleet large enough to assure continued American global preeminence, the Navy sent to Capitol Hill on March 23 a 30-year ship plan. The plan offers two options for the fleet of 2035: one with only 260 ships, including 10 aircraft carriers, the second with 325 ships, including 11 aircraft carriers. The second, larger fleet would require a rate of shipbuilding greater than the Navy had previously envisioned. Yet, when Defense News reported this story, it concluded the first paragraph with the line “analysts worry that neither option may really be affordable.”

But is this true as an economic fact, or is it only a lack of political will disguised as poverty? Most of the decline in Navy strength took place in the 1990s, and future plans revolve around whether or by how much to rebuild. Is America expected to become so dreadfully impoverished that it cannot afford its former glory? Consider the following table, using data from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
(All dollar figures are in trillions.)


1986
2006 (estimate)
GDP
$4.4 trillion
$12.9 trillion
GDP constant 2000 $s
$6.3 trillion
$11.4 trillion
Federal Outlays
(in constant 2000 dollars)
$1.4 trillion
$2.2 trillion
Federal budget
 as % GDP
22.4
19.8
Defense Spending
 as % GDP
6.2
3.5
Defense Spending
as % Federal Budget
26.8
16.6
Fleet Size
(number of warships)
594
289
Aircraft carriers
15
11

In real terms, the American economy has nearly doubled in the twenty year period 1986-2006 (and tripled in nominal terms). And while it is impossible to predict economic growth out to 2035 with precision, the assumption is that growth will continue. So why cannot the United States maintain the military force levels it deployed twenty years ago? Or, in the small-fleet scenario favored by the administration, can it not even maintain current strength?

While it is true that weapon systems have increased in cost as they push the technological frontier, the real cause of fiscal distress in Pentagon planning is that defense spending’s share of that economy has been cut in half. And even in a time of war on several fronts, and with the prospect for continued strife over the coming decades as new powers rise to jostle for position, the Bush Administration has refused to do anything to rebuild the Navy from the deep and imprudent cuts inflicted on it during the of the 1990s.

The warship classes most affected by future cuts in fleet strength are aircraft carriers, amphibious ships, and submarines. These are the very ships which define the U.S. Navy and give it the unique power projection capabilities which no other navy can match. The Navy recently announced that it would decommission the carrier John F. Kennedy rather than refurbish it for another 10-20 years of service. This takes the fleet down to 11 carriers. Today’s fleet has 35 amphibious vessels, enough for 12 Marine amphibious ready groups (ARGs). The plan foresees 17 to 24 amphibs in service in 2035. The big-fleet option calls for enough amphibs to maintain only eight ARGs, while the small-fleet option sees enough assault ships for only five or six ARGs – half the current force level. Whenever there is a crisis, the first questions are always; where are the carriers and where are the Marines? Future presidents are not going to like the answers.

The Navy plan calls for either 37 or 41 submarines in 2035, down from 52 today. The ultimate in stealth warships, nuclear submarines have been considered the new capital ship. With increased capabilities due to their ability to launch cruise missiles against either land or naval targets, submarines should be a higher priority in Navy strategy – but again, the argument is heard that the United States can no longer afford such a grand fleet.

Senators Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Mel Martinez (R-FL) and Representative Ander Crenshaw (R-FL) have introduced Aircraft Carrier End Strength legislation (Senate bill S 145 and House bill HR 304) to address one aspect of this decline. The legislation would require that “the naval combat forces of the Navy shall include not less than 12 operational aircraft carriers…” Both bills have been referred to the respective Armed Services Committees.

As to other classes of warships, almost all new construction will be concentrated in the new Littoral Combat Ship. The LCS will be the smallest unit in the fleet with limited firepower, protection, and endurance. Indeed, the class was designed to be cheap. Production plans for the much more capable DD(X) destroyer have been cut in half, with the start of production delayed. So severe has been the cut back in warship construction rates that the financial viability of the American shipbuilding industry and its supplier base have been put at risk.

As the carrier which bears his name faces early retirement, it might be wise to remember the words of President John F. Kennedy, “Control of the sea means security. Control of the sea means peace. Control of the sea can mean victory. The United States must control the sea to protect our security.”


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: eeyore; globalism; joebtfsplk; nationalsecurity; navalfleet; navy; thebusheconomy; theskyisfalling; weredoomed; willielogic
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US wants to help India be a superpower!
1 posted on 03/31/2005 12:01:30 PM PST by Willie Green
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To: AAABEST; afraidfortherepublic; A. Pole; arete; billbears; Digger; Dont_Tread_On_Me_888; ...

ping


2 posted on 03/31/2005 12:02:09 PM PST by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: All

Same crap I heard in the 80's and the answer is no.


3 posted on 03/31/2005 12:02:30 PM PST by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: Willie Green
The decrease in the size of our Military should be compared with the logic of instead of using two pistols to shoot someone, you can usually do a better job with one shotgun.

All the talk about the smaller size of our military does not take into account the fact that our current military could wipe the floor with our own military of 10 years ago. It would not even be a fair fight.

4 posted on 03/31/2005 12:08:05 PM PST by Pukin Dog (Sans Reproache)
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To: KevinDavis

As long as we can keep the liberals (read socialists) at bay, we'll be in good shape.

Now, let's force some reform to our F-U'd judicary.....


5 posted on 03/31/2005 12:08:47 PM PST by Howie66 ("America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our people.")
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To: Willie Green; eyespysomething

There are two legitimate purposes for the federal government: national defense and lighthouses. Yet we shift dollars from national defense to pay for all kinds of outrageous "gimme programs." We need meaningful and deep spending cuts combined with increases in defense spending and cuts (or better yet, significant reforms) in taxes.


6 posted on 03/31/2005 12:09:00 PM PST by SittinYonder (Tancredo and I wanna know what you believe)
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To: Willie Green
Thanks for the ping.

I think we should pay whatever price is needed to keep our preeminence as the world's superpower. And I would fund it by eliminating the Department of Education (a nice $60-70 billion contribution), and our funding for the National Endowment for the Arts, public broadcasting, and a host of other socialist programs that would only do good for our country if they were eliminated this afternoon.

7 posted on 03/31/2005 12:09:19 PM PST by snowsislander
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To: Howie66; All

I agree...


8 posted on 03/31/2005 12:10:25 PM PST by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: snowsislander
I think we should pay whatever price is needed to keep our preeminence as the world's superpower. And I would fund it by eliminating the Department of Education (a nice $60-70 billion contribution), and our funding for the National Endowment for the Arts, public broadcasting, and a host of other socialist programs that would only do good for our country if they were eliminated this afternoon.

You can say that again!

9 posted on 03/31/2005 12:10:29 PM PST by SittinYonder (Tancredo and I wanna know what you believe)
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To: snowsislander; All

Getting rid of Amtrack would help..


10 posted on 03/31/2005 12:11:05 PM PST by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: KevinDavis

Is it just me .. or have the hounds of hell been unleashed upon this country - I'm just stunned by all these attacks.


11 posted on 03/31/2005 12:15:04 PM PST by CyberAnt (President Bush: "America is the greatest nation on the face of the earth")
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To: Willie Green

How could have our economy in real terms doubled in the last 20 years? I thought the WTO and NAFTA ruined our economy.


12 posted on 03/31/2005 12:18:39 PM PST by Always Right
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To: CyberAnt; All

These articles happen all of the time. Usually happen more everytime there is a Republican in office. I remember hearing this stuff when Reagan was President.


13 posted on 03/31/2005 12:20:28 PM PST by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: Willie Green

The US governments number one job is to protect its citizens. So cuts can come from other areas of government.


14 posted on 03/31/2005 12:23:33 PM PST by Sprite518
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To: Always Right
How could have our economy in real terms doubled in the last 20 years?

By quadrupling our National Debt?

15 posted on 03/31/2005 12:28:58 PM PST by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: Willie Green

Our greatest enemies don't have (significant) navies.


16 posted on 03/31/2005 12:30:08 PM PST by Lekker 1 ("There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be attainable"- Albert Einstein)
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To: KevinDavis

Yeah, I've picked up on the fact that a repub is in office - but this seems to be slightly different - more desperate to poison public opinion - an over saturation so to speak. It's very disconcerting to me.


17 posted on 03/31/2005 12:31:57 PM PST by CyberAnt (President Bush: "America is the greatest nation on the face of the earth")
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To: Pukin Dog
This article attracts a certain sort of FReeper who is much given to hysteria, and is woefully ignorant of what the military is, what it does, and how it does it. This FReeper's idea of strategy, operations, and tactics are dervied from Grade-Z war movies. In short, this sort of FReeper knows about as much about real war as those bilious bastards at the Saturday Evening Post know about fornicating.
18 posted on 03/31/2005 12:33:33 PM PST by Poohbah (I'm in the WPPFF)
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To: CyberAnt; All

I think it has to do with the internet mostly. You are right I have noticed more of these articles lately. We do have problems, however, I don't think that this nation is going to crash and burn in the near future..


19 posted on 03/31/2005 12:34:28 PM PST by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: Willie Green

We'll end up a lot poorer if we don't!!


20 posted on 03/31/2005 12:35:00 PM PST by You Dirty Rats (Mindless BushBot)
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