Posted on 03/30/2005 9:04:58 AM PST by Bald Eagle777
China’s top offshore oil and gas producer, CNOOC Ltd., will begin operations this year at a gas field in the East China Sea despite a territorial dispute with Japan.
..CNOOC Chairman Fu Chengyu told reporters on Tuesday he expected the Chunxiao field, located south of Japan, to begin operations in August and September...
....On Monday Japanese media reported Japan had demanded that China halt construction at the Chunxiao natural gas field. Hydrocarbon deposits were found in the early 1970s...
In 2004 China’s construction of the Chunxiao natural gas production plant 5 kilometres (3 miles) from the disputed area aggravated tensions between the countries...
...The field’s gas reserves were estimated at 200 billion cubic metres by a 1999 Japanese survey.
CNOOC, listed in Hong Kong and New York, is the main operator of Chunxiao. The other operator is Beijing-controlled Sinopec Corp..
(Excerpt) Read more at dailytimes.com.pk ...
This could get very "interesting" ...
This is part of a current "trend" that deserves watching. China has similar disputes with Vietnam, S. Korea and, naturally Taiwan. Some of those disputes have the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia with additional claims in some of the same areas.
Japan has a PR problem that the U.S. should help it get over. It has been a very good business partner with many Asian nations for over thirty years now. They have all prospered because of the Japanese economy and Japanese investments. Japan has not been an economic bully and its direct foreign aid is the largest in the world. In spite of that, close cooperation with Japan on national security issues is still hard for many Asian nations to achieve. Neither they, nor Japan apparently, can get over the Japanese legacy of WWII. The shame is that Japan today is not the Japan of the WWII era. They need to have a stronger military that is part of cooperative security measures with its Asian partners.
We (the U.S.) need to work agressively for Southeast Asian cooperation with Japan on security issues. It would be in Asia's, and our, best long term interest.
Maybe we are. Bush's people have indicated that one U.N. change they would support would give Japan a seat on the Security Council. I support that. If India and Pakistan would lay down their sabers, completely, permanently I would support a joint sub-continent seat for them as well.
China is drunk on its own power. It is forcing Japan, Australia, the Philipines and even Vietnam toward a common purpose, namely, checking Chinese power in the region. If I were China, I would not want to see a militarized Japan.
Agreed.
Yes, you are 100% correct in that there are multilateral disputes on the sides of most parties in the region, often many having similar and competing/conflicting claims on the region's resources. Not just natutal gas and oil R & D, but other items, like fishing rights, the nature and scope of each nation's EEZ, and other regional energy and power issues.
I think the trick is to carefully assess the major points of contention (and sources of potential conflict) and the creation of security measures that realistically deal with each potential problem. You are correct, the rub or "fly in the ointment" is Japan's legacy from WW-II (and before, also). Would-be partners in an effective security arrangement are reluctant to get too close to Japan, or aid and abet in the creation of a new, malevolent Japanese Empire.
The truth is that Japan is a hard-working and industrious country that has clearly proven itself as a trusted and trustworthy business partner and security co-guarantor in the region.
The trick is to get every ally to see it that way. In light of the massive Chinese military buildup of the last few years, this issue is becoming more pressing as each day passes.
China's expansion can only be checked if there is a balance of credible military forces in the region at least equal to or greater than that of China's. China stands to gain as long as Japan and all the other players in the region are weak. I agree 100% that China would not want to see a militarized Japan. That scenario would put their expansion in "check" and China at this time does not wish to be quarantined, to say the least.
Mark my words; China's claims do NOT end with Taiwan.
We are already seeing that in the case of the Senkakus, for example, and even with respect to their encroaching on their neighbor's fishing rights. China will continue to keep "pushing the envelope" until met with resistance.
Taiwan had better buy those 8 subs ASAP (for starters) and Japan had better have comprehensive, meaningful dialogue with the security stakeholders in the region soon. Time is running out.
I do not know exactly when or where, but I think the trend in this situation will produce election-defining events leading up to the 2008 elections. I think the Chinese hope that not to be the case, preferring to not have such events affect our next presidential selection. But I think other's reactions to China will cause China to try to play its hand a little too strongly, a little too soon, rather than later. Already they are trying to line up Russia to form joint naval "security" operations from the China sea to the Taiwan straits.
I know, they have been trying to pull Russia into this mess. If Russia gets accidentally mixed up in this conundrum, and the situation cooks up, we are probably looking at WW-III.
The fact that China is trying to co-opt Russia is totally unforgivable. Russia should turn the other cheek and spurn China's devious advances. China is playing a wicked game, and Russia should make the choice to try to defuse the situation and walk away.
I disagree with your assessment of Russian innocence in its cooperation with Chinese desire to set Asian security concerns on Chinese terms. Russia is knowingly, not accidentally, getting "mixed up".
We are already in WWIII now; it began in 1991. The active part of our response simply had a twelve year delay - no thanks to France and Clinton's desire to not oppose France on more quickly settling up with Sadaam and playing diplomatic games with other Muslim dictators. In time, history will bring out the true extent of actual Iraqi connections with and background support for Al Queda.
China is not co-opting Russia. It is looking for partners and to the extent that Russia is cooperating with China, that cooperation is a willing and conscious choice, with no illusions about Chinese intentions. Russia is playing the same game as France - anything to contradict the only "superpower".
Russia is a mobocracy and its foreign affairs are directed to pure and total nationalistic economic concerns to support and strengthen the Russian mob created oligarchs that now control Russia's economy through the KGB.
I have said for years, the one thing that Gorbachev was right about was that his country was not ready for democracy. It did not have the instutitions, history and culture to make it work. He wanted to implement perestroika and glasnost gradually, allowing time to create national democratic based institutions and allowing the functing of those institutions to provide a history and culture of democratic practice.
The politburo tried to replace Gorby because they did not want to loose their power and the new democrats did not want to wait for glasnost and perestroika to change the national culture. The only ones who were organized, who had their own national network, who had connections with the party apparatchiks and the levers of government, who had favors owed to them by party and government officials and who were ready and able to move into the power vacumn was ......the Russian mobs. The KGB needs them and they need the KGB. They are each others base of power. Nothing can get done in the economy without the mob and the KGB can replace one mobster with another if its suits Putin. Nothing in that power equation has changed since Gorby fell. It has made the Russian people willing to question the "democracy" and "free markets" they are told they have. It is making the Russian people willing to accept a new revolution and a new dictatorship who will throw out the mob oligarchy - and capitalism and freedom along with it. Think if the old Soviet Union without the ideology and you have a Russian version of Nazi Germany.
Good God, I don't trust Russia as far as I can throw it. They are sneaky and when their military is quiet, still, it's always a good idea to keep an eye on what they are doing (EX: aircraft carrier activity 3/23).
When it comes to Russia, they can cause enough mischief on their own without being tempted by the prospect of oil and natural gas in the East China Sea region.
No way, they are not innocent whatsoever (Iskander-E and SA-18 proposed export deals to Syria; NVG being sold to Iraq right up to, and including, operations in OIF). No, I have never trusted Russia, nooooo. (Patton was right at the end of WWII,FYI). aROUND 1991, i wrote a strong paper articulating that the Soviet Union could come back and I documented cases in which old Communist Party hacks were still controlling different agencies etc. (The influence of the Russian mob is well documented and their expanding influence is not to taken lightly.) I went into a section on the Soviet Political culture and tied it into Russia's historic predilection for authoritarianism (tracing it back to Ivan) and cited the Russian political culture as being a definite obstacle to Democracy. Noooo I do not trust Russia, but it would be nice if they "just" tried to cause trouble “only” in Eastern Europe and the "Stans" and back off on any pacific maneuvers and arms activities in the Middle East.
Russia has its fingers in enough pies without China asking them to buddy up on misadventures in the Pacific, in oil deals and a potential hot war involving Taiwan and Japan (and the US). In the case of Russia, my HOPE is that they make a calculated assessment of the situation that getting further involved in Pacific affairs will cost them far more than any perceived benefits that China offers.
In the case of China's entreaties to Russia to participate in military maneuvers/war games, I find the Chinese proposal to "convert" these as being anti-terrorist exercises to what amounts to a mock invasion of Taiwan to be repulsive. I think China has FAR more to gain with Russian involvement in Pacific affairs than does Russia.
If it appears that Russia doesn't "get it" as to the wrongness of China's position and its irresponsible militarization of the region, then it should be clearly explained to Russia, in very clean and certain terms, they would be well advised to back off and walk away.
IF the proposed military exercises do in fact transpire, and IF in fact they resemble amphibious landing/invasion rehearsal operations and NOT anti-terror types of drills, I say we sink the entire Chinese fleet and all Russian vessels in the Pacific in a sudden and violent preemptive strike and let the precision bombing of all remaining Chinese and Russian assets in the region commence with extreme prejudice.
If we can destroy all their assets promptly, they may just get it through their thick skulls that that we are quite capable of knocking their block clean off and finally cut the BS.
Peace terms: China scraps its sub fleet, cuts back on military spending by 80% and Russia agrees not to sell China any more naval assets, like Kilo-IIs.
Our first act is to revoke our acceptance of China in the WTO and end all - 100% of imports from China. End the income in greenbacks that funds their economy that funds their military build up. We want a signed Treaty between China and an independent Taiwan and demilitarization of any part of southern China within reach to Taiwan. Revoke the Nixon/Ford/Carter/Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush fiction that Taiwan wants and deserves anything but independence.
I agree with your points. Sounds like a workable strategy.
In preparation, we would have to make absolute certain that nothing is manufactured in China that we need from a military technology standpoint (even a small electronic sub-assembly for a radar or other system) or from a "vital national strategic" standpoint.
If China abandons all claims to Taiwan and amicably resolves each and every territorial dispute it has with its neighbors in a manner satisfying all parties, then peace and trade have a real shot in the Pacific and East China Sea regions.
If not, there are going to be some serious storm clouds, and the you-know-what will hit the fan Big Time.
IMHO, we should ditch the WTO and the entire Global framework that has grown up like a bad weed that needs to be ripped up. Arm's length trade between totally Sovereign, independent nations is the way to go.
If China gets out of line, they need to be kicked in the teeth. Russia would be well advised to back off, stand down and stay clear.
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