BTW, I am hearing Friday may be very bloody in Iran.
I will report more later.
Hello all,
First, I would like to apologize.
In the last several weeks, in my mind, I have said some regrettable things (at least in my mind) about US foreign policy and the President of the United States. I said these things out of impatience, irritation, and viewing Iran in a vacuum, and not in the greater, widespread picture.
In the real world, things do not happen in a vacuum. Many things, if not everything, is related. Even if the relation is not obvious.
Again I apologize.
Now, the regional analysis I promised yesterday:
[IRAN]
I had called for an immediate blockade of Iran, but I now see that the time is simply not right yet. Iran is developing nuclear weapons, but it seems unlikely to develop them if such an act of war takes place tomorrow, or in six months. The "nuclearization" of Iran is a absolutely devestating threat to the world, but it is not an imminent threat. If it were, Israel would have attacked by now. Iran is orchestrating much of the terror taking place in the region. But there is more to it than Iran.
[SYRIA}
As we all know, Syria is how most terrorists get into Iraq. Syria supplies training bases, sanctuary, refuge of Iraqi Ba'ath party officials and other elements of Saddam's regime. Syria takes orders from Iran, since Assad and Co. want the Iranian money to keep flowing in. Indeed, even Syria is providing assistance in the development of the Iranian nulcear program inside the Syrian borders.
[IRAQ]
Iraq now has a functioning democracy, even though most doubted it were possible two years ago. Yet it is now the case. Saddam Hussein's regime as it was is no longer a threat to the world. However, Iran and Syria have been squeezing Iraq for nearly two years now, with negligible success. Iran provides the cash, and Syria provides everything else. Syria and Iran aren't friends, but they have allied themselves against the Americans and the new country of Iraq. To the forces of evil, a free and democratic Iraq is devestating. Iran and Syria have failed to destabilize Iraq. Not because they can't, but because they were not willing to do so at the time. Syria does enough, it thinks, to keep the Americans happy, and tries to bring enough terror to the country to keep the Americans from considering deposing the Assad regime. The Iranians believe they have little to fear from the US in Iraq, thinking they are immune to an attack or invasion. So the two countries meddle in Iraq without risking their own destruction.
[LEBANON]
After former PM Rafik Hariri's assassination in early February, the Lebanese people have risen up. As a result, the Syrian military and security presence in Lebanon is grudgingly beginning to leave the country after a 29-year presence. It is always good to keep in mind, that there is something special in the Bekaa valley of Lebanon: some of Saddam's WMD. Should those weapons be retrieved, it would be a victory for the Bush administration. The alliance of evil does not want that to happen. Thus, it will refuse to give up Lebanon, and the Bekaa valley in particular. The Iranians have been transferring men and materials to Hezbollah in Lebanon (and cash, as they do every month). The foreign interference in Lebanon is merely changing face, not leaving.
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Some dates are upcoming that will spark near-simultaneous regime change in three countries this summer/autumn.
First is the Lebanon elections in May. I believe that, in general, the Iranian regime will attempt to more or less blow up the Middle East. One specific way that they can do this is to have Hezbollah relentlessly attack Israel,trying to draw Israel into counter-attacking Lebanon. When, possibly, Israeli and Hezbollah forces are fighting in Lebanon, the Syrian military could say that it has no choice but to get back into Lebanon to stabilize the situation. Worst-case scenario would be Israeli forces fighting Hezbollah and Syrian forces. Syria would not commit excessive resources, as they would not wish to win such a war quickly, if at all. They would prefer to see the fighting drag on, hoping that on the east of their country, the American forces would choose to not make a bad situation worse. The elections will be postponed or cancelled. If the elections are held, they will be rigged by the Syrians. By June, Syria will about to be brought to the UN Security Council, if not already.
Second is the Iranian situation. They have elections scheduled for June 17th. It is widely expected that the majority of citizens will refuse to vote in protest. Turnout could realistically be only 20 or 25%. By July, the United States will not look favorably upon the elections, and it will say that the low turnout proves that the Iranian people are dissatisfied with their government. Protests and rallies will continue to increase from now till the election, and beyond. It is possible, though not likely, that the regime will have collapsed by July. However, the noise of the Iranian people will becoming very loud by then, loud enough for perhaps even western media to hear. The regime may begin to take extreme measures against the protesters, resulting in bloody massacres. Tehran will be in a race to develop the atomic bomb before the regime collapses.
Third is Iraq. By summer, the terrorist threat to the country will be lower than it is today. The country will be more stable, and the American troops will have concentrations of force on the eastern and western borders.
This is how I think events will unfold, assuming ideal situations:
The IDF will fight hard against Hezbollah. Will the fight is ongoing, the Americans will attack Syria from the east. Having been undercut, the Syrian military may continue to fight in Lebanon, but not for very long. Immediately before the American attack, Syria will attempt to launch vicious attacks on Israel, attempting to start a large-scale war. I believe the American attack will come relatively suddenly. It will not be like the Iraq war; there will be little warning. Assad's regime collapses in a week assuming horrible American tactics and surprising defensives by the Syrians. It could collapse in days or even hours under ideal conditions, while Israel and Hezbollah spar in Lebanon.
At about the same time, the US Navy blockades Iran. Oil prices will likely be at all-time highs. At first, the Iranians try USS Cole-style attacks. Publically, Iran condemns the "terrorist" attacks. As the days pass, Iran then resorts to torpedoes and even maybe cruise missles. As the mullahs se the handwriting on the wall, they will try to survive, unlike Saddam Hussein. Their army will invade Iraq and try to cause a lot of trouble. Elements of the Air Force will fly sorties over Iraq. With the Syria/Lebanon front collapsing, they will fight for survival.
As the Iranian economy sinks, the people rise up in large numbers. The large-scale fighting begins to die down once the regime is toppled.
Syria and Lebanon are in chaos. Hezbollah is greatly diminished, thanks to Israeli action and the drying up of funds from Iran. Iran is savaged by an intense insurgency, more deadly than the Iraqi insurgency, but it begins to weaken after the end of the year.