If you are China....what is acceptable loss for gain?
100 Aircraft....600 Cruise missiles.... a couple of surface combatants.
U.S. loses 1 Carrier...with another severly damaged.
Several other U.S. Battlegroup assets damaged.
Cease fire...negotiation.
China begins negotiation with first talking point being the legitimate re-unification party and past election returns.
China reveals a Taiwan which supports re-unification and claims the popular vote is being skewed.
Japan ...after seeing the massive fiscal loss of the breif military encounter between U.S./China,
begins to lean toward re-unification of Taiwan.
South Korea...having a desire for re-unification with the North ...also leans towards Taiwans re-unification.
Back in the United States....Defence analysts margin it will be half a decade for the U.S. to recover from this event...with Congress at each others throats over why the Navy was strategically vulnerable.
Being unable to address the real reason..that being a 12 Carrier Navy...with 2 Carrier Battlegroups now scatched off the game board.
They defer for *recovery.
Taiwan re-unification becomes tabled in Congress.
Like Vietnam.....the U.S. did well in battle...lessons were learned.
Yet the political track factored the incrimental losses if the conflict continued.
In a few more months time......the U.S. could have lost 4 carriers.
It was time to cut and run.
Taiwan was a democracy....if they desired re-unification,
Then the U.S. should step aside.
This scenario is very real.
It could also be China getting absolutely hammered....with no Carrier loses to the U.S.
Yet if China could just hurt the U.S.Navy...
Enough to create doubt in Congress.
They would then have their prize in time.
USAF B2's are going to hammer Chinese naval installations long before the CVN's go anywhere near Taiwanese waters. The USN must also 'account' for any remaining Chinese attack subs that were at sea at the opening of hostilities. This all assumes that the US opts to back Taiwan, which is increasingly doubtful.