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To: Plymouth Sentinel
Any decision to revalue, especially by China, will least to a faster, more precipitous decline.

I guess I don't understand how China, for example, can unilaterally decide to revalue U.S. dollars.

China could decide, for example, not to take any more U.S. dollars, and that may (would) impact the market value of U.S. dollars. But that doesn't impact dollars the Chinese already have or the dollars China has invested in the U.S. economy.

In fact, declining market values of U.S. dollars would reduce, not increase, the value of China's dollar and dollar-denominated portfolios. And China would not have an immediate and easy exit from its existing dollar assets.

Moreover, China's decision not to accept any more U.S. dollars would put out-of-business those Chinese industries dependent upon U.S. consumers' buying Chinese products because my local Super Wal-Mart won't accept yuan.
8 posted on 03/24/2005 9:31:58 AM PST by The Great Yazoo ("Happy is the boy who discovers the bent of his life-work during childhood." Sven Hedin)
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To: The Great Yazoo

Yazoo,

You touch on a number of discrete topics here.

The Chinese have pegged (through buying and selling in the open market) their currency to the US dollar for a number of years (I believe it was 1994). By allowing their currency to float (removing the peg) their currency will revalue (appreciate) versus the US dollar, which will devalue versus that currency: the markets, without the peg, at what point we know not, will correct any diseqilibrium. Note that it can persist almost indefinitely. Without removing the peg, declining US dollar value would indeed impact the $165 billion portfolio of dollar assets now held by the Chinese.

But it's not as simple as 'not taking more US dollars.' We're on a subject far afield from currency exchange at the local bank branch. The Chinese central bank owns dollar assets (bonds) which of course are liabilities of ours to them. We pay interest on the bills, notes, bonds. That's why economists call this willingness to hold dollar assets 'financing our spending habits,' which their commitment is in a literal sense. Many people think of central bankers as portfolio managers, trying to make the most of their portfolio of reserve currencies. Nothing could be further from the truth. They peg to keep their goods and services competitive, and the price is holding dollar assets.

You're correct in that sourcing is will ultimately benefit us. After all, our most recent data suggests that where 8.2 million jobs are sourced overseas, some 5.4 million are insourced, to all fifty states. We're the most productive, most innovative, most inventive economy in the world, and a net beneficiary of job sourcing. The dollars may indeed by spent here. But they may not. Whatever the case the dollar out there is a liability.

Which brings me to my final point. Alan Greenspan said last year, twice, that our trade imbalance (part of the current account) cannot be separated from our capital account, that there is no unidirectional causal relationship between the trade balance and capital flows. What this means is that foreigners' willingness to hold dollar assets may in turn further our current account deficit.

But make no mistake, our current account deficit and our capital account surplus are both liabilities. And so Tamny is wrong. Some of what he says is of value, to be sure. But he's just plain wrong in a fundamental way.

The wisest people in the game know that the dollar is dramatcially overvalued. And so I would ask: you gonna believe Tamny? Or Alan Greenspan, Roger Ferguson, Ben Bernanke & the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, all twelve Federal Reserve Bank's economists, central bankers from around the world, etc., etc.

Your call.



9 posted on 03/24/2005 1:01:47 PM PST by Plymouth Sentinel (Sooner Rather Than Later)
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