Venezuela politics: Battling with the US

Tension between Venezuela’s government, led by President Hugo Chávez, and the US has increased in recent weeks, judging from the rhetoric coming from both sides. Mr Chávez, now entrenched as president after an unsuccessful referendum failed to oust him last year, continues to accuse the US of meddling in Venezuela politics, and has even suggested that Washington is plotting to kill him. US officials, for their part, have portrayed Mr Chávez as a rogue leader who is undermining democratic governments elsewhere in Latin America. While the war of words has yet to produce a change of policy on either side, the potential for escalation exists.

The George Bush administration has always been hostile towards Mr Chávez, a maverick former military officer whose populist policies and tough talk have polarised the country, and alarmed the White House, since he took office in 1999. Mr Chávez has accused the US of having supported a coup that briefly ousted him in 2002 and of siding with and financing his opponents ever since. Washington was widely criticised in Latin America for having failed to condemn that unconstitutional ouster, and for a period afterward seemed to be trying to ease the friction with Caracas.

At the start of the Bush administration’s second term, however, the White House seems determined to put new pressure on Venezuela. The new secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, has said that Mr Chávez governs in an "illiberal way". Other State Department officials have been more biting in their criticism. Roger Noriega, assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs, sees him as a threat to his neighbours. Roger Pardo-Maurer, deputy assistant secretary of state, has accused Mr Chavez of employing a "hyena strategy" (ie preying on the weak) and of using his oil money to "introduce his conflictive style into the politics of other countries." He has alleged, for instance, that Caracas is financing Evo Morales, a fiery leftist congressman in Bolivia who has spearheaded anti-government protests in that country. Washington also has asserted that Mr Chávez has ties to Colombia’s insurgent groups.

Mr Chávez has responded by upping the ante, cozying up to countries such as China and Iran, and threatening to cut the US off from its oil supplies if he is attacked. Venezuela is the world’s fifth-largest oil producer and a major supplier to the US market. Caracas has also accused the White House of conspiring to gain control of its oil production.

So far, these volleys have escalated the rhetorical battle between the two countries but have yet to be translated into concrete actions. Venezuela is unlikely to stop shipping oil to the US, which takes around 60% of its crude exports, in the near term, as the time and logistics involved in diverting it to more distant markets would make little economic sense. Nor, as Caracas implies, is Washington apt to invade Venezuela or make any overt attempts to get rid of Mr Chávez.

Washington has legitimate concerns about some of Mr Chávez’s policies. The Venezuelan president has been centralising power in his own hands at the expense of other institutions. For example, he has purged the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, of thousands of employees sympathetic to the political opposition and has stacked the Supreme Court with his supporters. He is also implementing a land-reform programme that involves expropriating properties of private landowners, including at least one foreign firm. In addition, the government has placed certain new restrictions on the media.

Of particular concern to US military officials, Venezuela has begun to upgrade its military arsenal, purchasing MIG fighter jets, helicopters and 100,000 assault rifles in recent weeks. Washington fears that some of these weapons might get into the hands of guerrilla in Colombia. The US in February responded with a high-profile show of force, sending naval vessels to conduct manoeuvres near Curaçao, off the coast of Venezuela, an act that Caracas viewed as a clear attempt at intimidation, if not part of an actual invasion plan.

This action, and the ongoing verbal "tit for tat", is hardly a productive strategy for the US, and not apt to improve the situation in Venezuela. "The only one that emerges a winner is Chávez, whose domestic constituents see him as winning the battle of words with the US," says Eduardo Gamarra, a Latin America specialist with Florida International University. Washington would be better off recognising that Mr Chávez is the elected president of his country, and using diplomatic channels to resolve conflict, he says.

Tensions with Venezuela may also be unduly influencing the US’s evolving relations with other Latin American countries. Mr Bush largely ignored the region during his first presidency, but he may be poised to refocus on it during this administration. Yet if the administration’s policies and views are shaped by its worries over Venezuela and a perception that other leftist leaders are gaining ground in the region, then those policies might not be the best informed. By implying that Venezuela is influencing events in Bolivia, for example, the administration may be failing to understand the long-standing ethnic and class divisions in that country, and will hence not lend the right type of support to its beleaguered democracy. The White House might also embark on an ill-advised policy of "containment" to limit Mr Chávez’s influence in the region.

However, if instead the strategy and language towards Mr Chávez were to become more threatening, his stature in the region would only grow. This could also lead to diplomatic rifts with other heads of state who would be irked by Washington’s more belligerent tone. By demonising Mr Chávez further, the Bush administration would diminish, rather than increase, its own standing in the region, while making more friends for Mr Chávez.

For the moment, US-Venezuelan relations are likely to remain status quo. However, there are reports that a team has been assembled within the US State Department to devise more creative ways to deal with Caracas. If this results in a more constructive and low-key approach by the US, this might help to cool tensions as well as to diminish Mr Chávez’s appeal among poor Venezuelans and other disaffected Latin Americans.

However, if instead the strategy and language towards Mr Chávez were to become more threatening, his stature in the region would only grow. This could also lead to diplomatic rifts with other heads of state who would be irked by Washington’s more belligerent tone. By demonising Mr Chávez further, the Bush administration would diminish, rather than increase, its own standing in the region, while making more friends for Mr Chávez.

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I thought that this was the way it would play out for now.

The first thing they have to realize is that this is not Cuba - And, after 40 years of concerted effort, there hasn't been any success in dislodging Castro has there. VZ has Oil, is rapidly solidifying it's defense and economic relationships with Russia and China and, perhaps most importantly, is not an island.

IMO these factors and VZ's proximity to other volatile and at-risk, countries such as Colombia, make the situation much more complex and threatening. Chavez recent and continued moves to consolidate political power and arm supporters smacks of prewar Germany.

New and Creative ways of dealing with this problem? Indeed.

"smacks of prewar Germany"

Chavez' goals are quite troublesome, but fortunately there is no risk that Venezuela's military will ever become as competent as Germany's was.

If John Kennedy had just not pulled air cover at the Bay of Pigs, we might not be facing this problem. Or if Carter hadn't sold out the winners in the recent Venezuelan recall election, we wouldn't be facing this. But there's no doubt an ill wind is blowing in Latin America, and it could prove costly to the US.

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