I suspect that one of the SPD deputies...really had a bad relationship with Simonis...for whatever reason. Its amusing that after the 1st ballot...they didn't go public open voting. Apparently the meeting was private, and everyone marked a ballot and stuffed it into a box, and was counted. I can guess...that Simonis was very puzzled at the end of the first ballot and no decision. And by the end of the second, she probably met with almost everyone in the room to assess what was going on...and then a flurry of chats with Schroeder. Schroeder's call to go to four full ballots really deepen the whole episode. For the media...it really made the headlines.
As for the next outcome, Ms Simonis is finished. I don't think you will ever see her back as a SPD politican. She will retire to the farm. Another state election is likely to come...with strong recommendations to disallow the Danish-fringe party from participating...which will require a political showdown, and media confrontation....all of which Schroeder doesn't need currently. The public in S-H may decide that the SPD is not the best option, and ensure a vote swings heavily to the right. This all makes for a great German comedy...real life characters....in a chaotic state.
They deserve whatever they get, too.
Spoorendonk, if she had been wise, should have realized that the SSW, with 3 % of the vote, had no business determining the political direction of S-H and the Bundesrepublik, and politely declined any attempts to form a coalition with either party.
Instead, she seized the opportunity for the spotlight and rushed to any camera available to blabber about her Steckenpferd, the Gesamtschulen, complete with abolishing grades, abolishing staying back, etc.
Another SSW member, right after the February 20th election, when asked why he felt the SPD had lost so many voters compared to 2000, replied, "I guess the voters felt that the economy wasn't going too well." Spoorendonk, instead of understanding this principle, completely ignored it. Simonis, in her bid to maintain power, ignored the message as well.
What's unemployment in S-H, about 15%, one of the highest in the former West? So you have high unemployment and have to endure the Frauenpower trio of Simonis, Juettkes and Spoorendonk as they pontificate about their take on the real evil in S-H, namely, the ignominy of having your kids get grades in school?
The SPD will be lucky if they get a grand coalition. I think new elections, which the voters in S-H want, would wipe them out.
It's really amazing to see how the German media is describing the renegade; "Backstabber", "Shabby", "Devious". Actually, by abstaining, he/she allowed the mirroring of the results of the popular vote. The CDU/FDP got more votes than the SPD/Greens. The SSW, existing at the whim of a 60 year old agreement, and representing 3% of the vote, got to play kingmaker until this person's abstention threw sand in the gears.
Schroeder must see the writing on the wall to have pushed for 4 votes to pressure the abstainee into the open, or to change his/her vote. His machinations backfired this time.
Now, with the good possibility of NRW going to the Union in May, his days may be numbered.
longjack