It might bring down Chirac's government. He's invested everything in the EU constitution, and he may not survive a "no" vote. The French would then in all likelihood elect a hard left (or even communist) government to take Chirac's place, like what happened in Spain. Of course, France is already so virulently anti-American that thos would not make much difference.
It might bring down Chirac's government. He's invested everything in the EU constitution, and he may not survive a "no" vote.
Now that would be the sweetest of all of the Iraq dominoes.
A socialist government might not be so bad. As I recall our relations with the French during the Reagan administration with the socialist Mitterand than with the conservatives.
It can't bring down Chirac's government. He's elected to a fixed term, like the US President.
It might bring down his center-right control of Parliament and return it to the Socialist/Communist "gauche plurielle".
Who can say?
But a stolen election is only possible if the vote is close, and if the People get wind of a real stolen election in France, that WILL bring down Chirac. There will be general strikes and a nationwide - peaceful - revolution.
The French do not take shit from their government.
When they are angry, really angry, they go into the streets by the millions, and the government ALWAYS caves, because the alternative is that the French go into the streets by the tens of millions. And then they start going into government buildings and pulling people out. French union tactics are thuggish and violent, and the Communists oppose this EU vote.
I do not think the government will be able to truly pull off an election theft in France. For one thing, there will not be electronic voting. For another, the vote counters and folks carrying the ballots around by truck will all be Communist union syndicated members. They will be vigilant.
This EU Constitution is a "bridge too far", to use an expression I like a lot. It is not good for France. It is good for the Enarques, because they believe they will rule Europe. But they will slip out of the control of the French. Of course, there will be a full-court-press of persuasion.
I think it will not pass.
Also their economy is in such a mess a more hard left government will not be able to help only make it worse.