I tend to think that, to the Chinese, Taiwan is an end of itself, although an invasion of the island might have a broader aim. Who can know with any certainty what the Chinese intend? Such an assault would certainly have a global ripple. Any opponent would want to disrupt our economy as much as possible, and oil is a notorious Achilles heel for the US. I disagree, however, that the Chinese would find a Middle Eastern adventure the stroll through the park you describe. It is easier to sink tankers to disrupt our oil supply than it is to send ground forces rampaging through thousands of miles of hostile desert.
"I disagree, however, that the Chinese would find a Middle Eastern adventure the stroll through the park you describe. It is easier to sink tankers to disrupt our oil supply than it is to send ground forces rampaging through thousands of miles of hostile desert."
Not a walk in the park no, but limitless supply of ground forces supported by an increasing advanced air-force and I don't see what country could stop them. After all, we are 7,000 from supply routes, vs. 500 or less miles for them. i doubt it is something they consider plausible today but they seem to be advanced long-term thinkers.
"The Chinese" means Chinese Communist Party and what they intend is 100% known: they want to stay in power.