I'm seeing an interesting, and I think mistaken, assumption in this entire thread. The people who are posting here tonight seem to think that abortion is the number one motivator of votes. Well, let me tell you, I called over 100 people in several sections of the country in the two days before the election, reminding the party faithful to get out and vote. And it was interesting what they told *me* -- they were interested in defense, defense, defense, and terrorism, terrorism, terrorism. A few of them also mentioned the Swifties and Kerry's lack of integrity.
But ... Not one person said one word about abortion to me. Granted, I didn't bring it up either, but the lack of hearing about it with all the people I talked to does indicate to me that abortion was NOT their number one topic. And it might not be in the next election, either.
Fine. I'm not going to dispute you. I don't speak for all Americans or, indeed as you have suggested, any Americans. Of course defense and terrorism are extremely important. But do you think they will be quite so pressing in 2008 as last year? And I would never expect abortion as a number one issue on a ticket. I understand that it won't ever be a number one issue. But I see abortion as an issue of moral values and I do believe that values are never far from the top of a [winning] ticket.
Abortion most certainly is not the most important issue. But why should the GOP accept a candidate who is left of the base on this issue when they could get a candidate who shares Rice's strengths on defense issues but who is also pro-life? The Dems certainly arent' going to accept anything less than a hard-line pro-choicer.
Now, if a Rice or Giuliani could convince the base that they would at a minimum not use the office of President to advance the pro-choice cause, and that they would nominate conservative judges, then their candidacy would be more attractive. But really, if a Reagan and Bush wind up picking just two reliably good Sup Court justices between them, then what chance is there that a Rice or Giuliani could be counted on?
In key states that once were Democratic but have moved Republican, abortion is a top issue why. The South used to be Democratic. A big reason it's now Republican is because Reagan embraced social conservatism - including pro-life. If the GOP now abandons Reagan's pro-life position, it can look at going back to the minority status it had before Reagan, because it will lose a key voter element of its majority standing.