Oh no? Ask Bush 41 if it doesn't, in terms of the conservative vote. Ask Bush 43 if it didn't almost work that way when the Evangelicals sat on their hands in 2000.
It most certainly does work that way. Having one's base not show up because one isn't sufficiently hardcore happens in every election cycle.
Read my post again. You missed my point.
Yes. Core segments of the base stayed home in those elections. It wasn't out of some complex strategy to send a message though, or to pout, or to somehow payback for having their feelings hurt.
It was because no one was articulating a strong enough message to motivate them to go to the polls. You have to stop thinking of every conservative voter as a calculating Republican activist extrapolating out the implications of their decisions. They vote (if they vote) in a more basic way on just a few key issues.
It is a subtle but important distinction that bears on the kinds of candidates we select.