Probably not nut I remember lost of folks saying that the American people would never elect Bill Clinton to a second term and Hillary had no shot at the senate in NY.
Crap happens.
And look at Ross Perot's popularity.
Not enough data points to make these kinds of generalizations. The problem though is that those who have not run the gauntlet of campaigns tend to make serious errors. If Condi can avoid such errors as a "rookie," and show reach and depth on domestic issues, and is articulate, she is in the hunt. If, lots of ifs, probably too many. Her abortion comments in my view were not particular skillful.