The more I think about Rice seeking the presidency, the more convince I am that she will poll less than 40 percent of the vote were she to be nominated.
Dear Theodore R.,
She won't get the nomination.
To be nominated, usually one must spend some time building up one's loyalist base in the party. Getting elected to significant office is an important part of this task. Being a US Senator, or even a US Representative is a good way of building up a loyal cadre of donors, workers, and supporters. Being a state governor is even better, as then one has the capacity to appoint a significantly-critical number of folks to political office.
The folks who come to the candidate's side during this process are the folks who will carry him through the tough times of any fight for the presidency. They've invested a lot in the candidate, and will fight desperately to the last drop of blood to win. Think: Karl Rove.
That isn't to say that the "celebrity" candidate can never get the nomination, Gen. Eisenhower being the last example of someone successful at this approach. But my own view is that celebrity candidates, having no long-term loyalists of their own, need to be acceptable to all the major factions of their party to be nominated.
They don't have the wherewithal to really slug it out during the nomination battle. If a major faction in the party opposes them, the threat of a divided party will cause other supporters to melt away, and when the going gets tough, everyone will have got gone. Contrast this to the candidate with the long-term loyalist base, such as Sen. Kerry, who in his darkest days in late-2003 and early-2004, still had a significant core of support, and a significant core of heavy-hitter party players who still supported him.
A pro-abort in the Republican Party only has a real chance if he's done the work over the years to build up his own loyalist base. A "celebrity" pro-abort has no chance in the Republican Party, as the pro-life wing will walk away in disgust, and there will be no long-term loyalists to sustain the candidate through the rough patch.
Ms. Rice can get the nomination, and she doesn't have to go all the way to the pro-life position. We pro-lifers are used to half a loaf or less, and have thrown our support to candidates who were dodgy on the issue.
But without coming out for the overturning or otherwise gutting of Roe v. Wade, she has no chance.
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