Lebanon politics: Karami chameleon

The Economist Intelligence Unit(subscription) ^

[Alex Marko]

Omar Karami, who has been called on to form a new Lebanese government, is seeking to re-invent himself as a standard-bearer for national unity. However, he has not expressed much confidence in his ability to play this role, and he may have little option but to resign for the second time in the space of a few weeks. The widening divisions in Lebanese politics raise questions over the feasibility of holding parliamentary elections in May, as had been planned before the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri.

Mr Karami’s resignation on February 28th after thousands of Hariri supporters gathered outside parliament, was a high point for the opponents of the Syrian-backed political and security establishment. However, they have suffered a series of setbacks since then. The Syrian regime has conceded the principle of its need to withdraw from Lebanon, and has thereby won some time. The anti-Syrian movement has also had to contend with a show of political force by Hizbullah, the main Shia Muslim party, whose huge demonstration in Beirut on March 8th dwarfed the earlier protests. Hizbullah thereby made a powerful affirmation of its role as a legitimate representative of a significant portion of the Lebanese people. By flying the Lebanese flag, Hizbullah sought to counter any suggestion that it is pursuing a Syrian agenda.

The re-appointment of Mr Karami has also exposed the opposition’s lack of effective leadership. The president, Emile Lahoud, asked Mr Karami to form the new government after 71 of the 128 MPs expressed their support for him in a parliamentary consultation. The opposition was confined to the surviving members of Mr Hariri’s bloc and the 29 MPs who voted against the extension of Mr Lahoud’s term last September. Eight MPs were absent. There were no other nominees for the post, which is reserved for a Sunni Muslim.

Mr Karami has asked the opposition--primarily Christian, Druze and Sunni Muslim--to join a government of national unity. However, he will have difficulty in filling his cabinet posts unless the central opposition demand for the heads of Lebanon’s intelligence agencies to be brought to account over the Hariri assassination is met. The opposition maintains that if the security chiefs remain in place, they and their Syrian colleagues will be able to manipulate the parliamentary elections so as to ensure that Damascus retains much of its influence over Lebanese affairs, even if its troops are pulled back over the border.

The risk for the opposition is that if Mr Karami fails the chance of holding any elections will diminish. A new government is required to present to parliament an election law, which must be passed at least 40 days before polling starts. If it proves impossible to form a government according to the national unity criteria that Mr Karami has stated, Mr Lahoud would have to return to parliament for more consultations. He would also have the option of calling on parliament to vote an extension to its own mandate, so as to allow sufficient time to resolve the constitutional crisis.